Gary Chase, airline analyst with Barclays, issued a note this morning in which he listed the exposure of different airlines to the potential short-term risk of passengers curtailing travel to Mexico.
Gary also took a look at the effect that the SARS scare had on the Asian carriers in 2003, and then extrapolated a kind of “worst case” scenario for our carriers — in terms of their Mexican exposure.
Of course, all of this is just conjecture at this point. This analysis is only looking at one part of the puzzle — the US carriers current exposure to Mexican flying. This assumes, which Gary pointed out, that the flu is able to be contained in Mexico.
And right now, that looks like a big assumption.
But let’s say that is the case. If that is the case, Alaska Airlines, Continental Airlines, US Airways and American Airlines are the four airlines that have the biggest percentage of their passenger revenue tied up on Mexican routes. Note that even though Alaska’s total O&D revenue tied to Mexico puts it fifth on the list, those flights make up 8% of the airline’s passenger revenues. A huge amount.