When I first started blogging I promised to only write about things I knew about. Perhaps that explains the paucity of my posts to date.
Over the past few weeks it’s been a bonanza for bad stuff. How much will a barrel of oil eventually cost? How low will the dollar really go? Is it better to work for an airline or an investment bank?
So I’ve been reading the news and talking to people who know a whole lot more than I do about the financial markets, and it’s pretty clear this is uncharted territory and nobody really know what the heck is going to happen. It sure is easier to predict things “will get worse before they get better”. It’s like saying the Cubs won’t win the series in 2008; you’ve got a lot more chance to be right than wrong and nobody will remember if you were wrong anyway.
Try as I may, I have never been able to figure out the game of craps as played in Las Vegas. Seemingly you can bet on anything, and if you are lucky you can win a lot of money. No value is created, no service is provided, and minimal skill is involved. A bet is made and won, or lost.
Sounds like Wall St. to me; but then again, I am not a financial wunderkind.
OK, that’s not fair. In part, the financial markets provide capital with which those so inclined can wager bets. Some safe, some not so safe. Some backed by logic, some backed by emotion.
It’s the emotion part that is the most difficult for me to understand. If I believed everything I heard about the state of the world everyday I’d be suicidal. Pass me the ammunition honey, the 6 o’clock news is coming on.
My personal opinion is that the bad news we are hearing about the financial markets now is just payback for the multi-million dollar bonuses that have been earned by Wall St. financial types over the past few years. I believe the system itself is basically sound and it is proving its soundness now.