Good Morning! Is There An Airline Bankruptcy in Your Future?

It’s another chilly morning here at the PlaneBusiness Worldwide Headquarters.

Ice Hotel 1

No, that’s not actually the Worldwide Headquarters, that is the Ice Hotel in Jukkasjarvi, Sweden.

But hey, after four mornings of sub-freezing temperatures in this part of the world, it’s a fair equivalent. Kind of. At least the four-legged members of our staff think so. Their forays outside have been, let us say, minimal. To say the least.

Later today, subscribers to PlaneBusiness Banter will get to read their latest issue. This week we’ll do our usual review of the latest DOT operational stats, we take a look at the capital structures of the major airlines we track — as of the end of the third quarter. We’ll also go into much more detail concerning the huge drop in airline shares over the last quarter, and particularly the last month.

I’ll post one or two of those airline stock performance charts in here next week if you guys behave yourselves between now and then. My New Year present to you.

Meanwhile, that story continues to be written — as they say — as today the airline sector is taking yet another major body blow. 

The airlines taking the biggest hits this morning?

Shares of ExpressJet are being hammered. Shares here, as of this posting, are down 6.3%, to 2.23.

Shares of United are not having a good day either, down 5% to 30.33.

Shares of Mesa, which we noted here yesterday were the sector’s biggest loser, are now down 3.4%, down to 2.59, although shares were as low as 2.29 earlier in the day — the lowest price level in 17 years, according to MarketWatch

JetBlue is not having a good day either. Shares here are down 4%, at around 5.21, while shares of Frontier are down 5.5%, down to 4.85. Shares of US Airways are down 4% to 12.24 as of this posting.

Two foreign flyers are having an awful day as well so far this Friday.

ADRs of GOL are down almost 8% to 21.63, while shares of Ryanair are not having a ducky day either, as ADRs here are currently trading down 5% to 34.60.

I hate to ruin your mid-morning snack, but if economic conditions continue to push in the same direction they are pushing now, jet fuel continues to wobble around record highs, and market valuations of airlines continue to drop like rocks — the issue in the next six months for this industry is not going to be consolidation. It’s going to be survival.

I look for us to hear about at least one major deal in the industry this month, and we may also hear about at least one other smaller one.

As for Chapter 11 filings, I think SkyBus is in trouble. They are holding a $20 fare sale — and remember — this fare level would be in addition to their “guaranteed” bank of $10 seats on every plane.

The airline had a horrendous Christmas season — with many operational difficulties and many unhappy customers.

This $20 fare sale the airline just announced? Familiar with the phrase, “Must raise cash?”

And hey, while we are dragging out phrases from the “Airline Bankruptcy Primer” remember the term, “pre-packaged bankruptcy?”

I would not be surprised if we don’t already have one of those sitting on the shelf. Or if it is not already on the shelf, an older version that was on the shelf is in the process of  being edited now to reflect changed conditions.

Any bets as to which airline I’m talking about?

I’ll give you a hint. They fly lots of airplanes that go through a lot of jet fuel.

And a pre-packaged bankruptcy would be one way to make all of those airplanes go away. Rather quickly.

It would also do other things.

We’ll see, but I’m afraid, unless economic conditions dramatically improve (and PBB subscribers know I am in full Ratty Old Bear Suit regalia on that question) — we are looking at a dramatically difficult six months ahead in this industry.

3 thoughts on “Good Morning! Is There An Airline Bankruptcy in Your Future?

  1. Chuck

    The carrier with the most fuel-inefficient domestic fleet I think is NW. Of course if you’re talking about regionals you could mean ExpressJet, or Mesa. As far as smaller airlines go, I don’t think that Virgin America is doing very well either…they’ve lost even more money than Skybus did…but I imagine they do have deeper pockets. It will be interesting to see what happens next in this strange industry.

  2. Mike28CSQ

    I really wonder about MESA’s survival. Their asset value is less than $100 million and they have an $80 million judgement against them. UAL is dumping them in the DEN-HDN market because there have been so many complaints. And they are losing pilots to other regionals at a rapid rate.

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