JetBlue returned to the black for the third-quarter, posting net income of $23 million, or $0.12 per share.

This figure compares favorably with a year-ago loss of $500,000 The numbers were also a nickel above Wall Street’s consensus forecast of $0.07, according to two different consensus forecasts.

However, as we have heard from other airlines, JetBlue is not too enthusiastic about its upcoming fourth quarter. In this case, the airline’s ballooning costs could make a fourth quarter profit a no-show.

Frank Boroch at Bear Stearns said in a note this morning that “JBLU expects an operating margin between 3-5% (vs. our 6.8%), assuming jet fuel at $2.23/gallon all-in (vs. our $2.33), with a pre-tax margin of -1-+1% (vs. our +1.9%). Unit costs should increase by 11-13% y/y (vs. our 12.8%), while ex-fuel CASM should rise by 6-8% y/y (vs. our 4.5%) on a 10-12% increase (vs. our 9%) in capacity and a 4% increase in the stage length.  The guidance (using our higher fuel price) implies 4Q EPS in the $0.00-($0.02) range (assuming a normal tax rate) vs. the current mean of $0.04 with a range of $0.12-($0.10).  4Q guidance implies a dramatic deceleration in 4Q y/y unit revenue growth on much more difficult y/y comps.”

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