Hello everyone.

It’s Tuesday. I know. I was not here yesterday.

It’s a local cultural thing. The National Championship was played in the Louisiana Superdome last night. So for all practical purposes, it was “Mardi Gras Light” in this part of the world starting last Thursday and running through last night when the LSU Tigers once again shamed the National Championship Big Ten Conference opponent, er, victim, Ohio State.

Geaux Tigers. And bravo to the incomparable “Golden Band from Tigerland,” all 355 strong.

One of these days I’m going to take a fall off and write a book, “My Life With the Band.” That’s after I convince the LSU music director to let me tag along for a semester.

I have a question for you Ohio State alums out there. Does the football team get motivated by that “gladiator” music the band plays? Whew. As an ex-band member — I must say that group did not look like a very happy and spontaneous bunch last night. Then again they are forced to wear those  beret-topped uniforms, while playing gladiator music.

Speaking of marching bands — Mardi Gras is February 5 this year. Yes, very, very early.  Parades start in New Orleans in another week.

Then, one week after Mardi Gras, New Orleans will host the NBA All-Star game. Woo hoo.

Now, to make the full 180 degree shift here — what does any of this have to do with airlines?

(Insert sound of “Jeopardy” here.)

A lot, if you are an airline and you are currently looking at the possibility of a rather bleak first quarter. Granted, first quarters are usually the weakest quarter of the year. But this year, with crude still trading around $96-97 a barrel as of this writing — and demand showing signs of increased weakness — an early Mardi Gras signifies something positive to the industry.

This means (have you looked at your calendar for 2008 yet?) that Easter is very, very early as well.

In fact, it lands in the third week of March, March 23.

So, amidst all the negative news regarding the prospects of the first quarter revenue front — a small bit of blue sky. The industry will see a nice added bit of revenue in the first quarter as a result of an unusually early Easter.

In other airline-related news today, a couple of tidbits.

United Stock Not Having A Good Day. Again.



United Airlines looks to be the biggest loser today in the sector, hands down. The drop comes as a result of analyst Jim Higgins research note that hit the wires yesterday. In his note, Higgins, who is with of Soleil Securities Group said there is “rising evidence” that actions by pilots contributed to the carrier’s bad December in which it had double the industry average number of delays. He said “such actions are legal but threaten the company’s profits.”

Duh.

Yesterday the stock dropped back 6%. Today? It’s now down another 16% the last time I looked, trading at around 24.53.

Hey, I don’t feel sorry for those investors. If they read PlaneBuzz, they would have been out of that stock a long time ago, and certainly after we wrote this recent column.

Singapore/China Eastern Deal Collapses

We’ve been following this merry-go-round for months, and today, it all came down to the China Eastern Airlines‘ shareholders meeting. According to the Associated Press, shareholders in China’s third-largest airline have rejected the bid by Singapore Airlines to buy a minority stake after Air China offered more money.

China Eastern Airlines supported the Singapore bid, but nearly 78% of shareholders rejected the deal.

The rejection is seen as a blow  to Singapore’s efforts to gain a foothold in China’s booming air travel market. China Eastern Chairman Li Fenghua said the carrier would now look for other ways to cooperate with Singapore and rejected any partnership with Air China.

“We will never consider Air China as a strategic investor,” Li told reporters. “The most important thing is not the price. The most important thing is to improve China Eastern Airlines‘ brand and management.”

Other Airline Stocks? The Airline Limbo Continues

While United is having a particularly bad day — a word for the squeamish. Don’t look at the rundown of today’s market moves in the airline sector if you are wearing a pacemaker. Or can’t take bad news very well.

As I write this, stocks are continuing to trend downward, so I don’t think we’ve seen the worst for the day — yet. Bad day on Wall Street today with more bad housing news (no, we are not surprised) in addition to rumors of a potential Countrywide Mortgage bankruptcy.

Just a small selection of the redder numbers I can see on our stock screen right now include: AirTran down 6% at 6.60; AMR, parent of American Airlines, down 10% at 12.02; Continental Airlines down 10% to 18.25; Delta Air Lines down 11% to 11.89; Southwest Airlines down 3% to 11.47; US Airways down 7% to 11.41; Northwest Airlines down 5% to 11.84.

Someone cut the limbo music. Please!

Technorati Tags: airline industry news, airline stocks, AirTran , American Airlines, AMR, Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, US Airways

It’s another chilly morning here at the PlaneBusiness Worldwide Headquarters.

No, that’s not actually the Worldwide Headquarters, that is the Ice Hotel in Jukkasjarvi, Sweden.

But hey, after four mornings of sub-freezing temperatures in this part of the world, it’s a fair equivalent. Kind of. At least the four-legged members of our staff think so. Their forays outside have been, let us say, minimal. To say the least.

Later today, subscribers to PlaneBusiness Banter will get to read their latest issue. This week we’ll do our usual review of the latest DOT operational stats, we take a look at the capital structures of the major airlines we track — as of the end of the third quarter. We’ll also go into much more detail concerning the huge drop in airline shares over the last quarter, and particularly the last month.

I’ll post one or two of those airline stock performance charts in here next week if you guys behave yourselves between now and then. My New Year present to you.

Meanwhile, that story continues to be written — as they say — as today the airline sector is taking yet another major body blow. 

The airlines taking the biggest hits this morning?

Shares of ExpressJet are being hammered. Shares here, as of this posting, are down 6.3%, to 2.23.

Shares of United are not having a good day either, down 5% to 30.33.

Shares of Mesa, which we noted here yesterday were the sector’s biggest loser, are now down 3.4%, down to 2.59, although shares were as low as 2.29 earlier in the day — the lowest price level in 17 years, according to MarketWatch. 

JetBlue is not having a good day either. Shares here are down 4%, at around 5.21, while shares of Frontier are down 5.5%, down to 4.85. Shares of US Airways are down 4% to 12.24 as of this posting.

Two foreign flyers are having an awful day as well so far this Friday.

ADRs of GOL are down almost 8% to 21.63, while shares of Ryanair are not having a ducky day either, as ADRs here are currently trading down 5% to 34.60.

I hate to ruin your mid-morning snack, but if economic conditions continue to push in the same direction they are pushing now, jet fuel continues to wobble around record highs, and market valuations of airlines continue to drop like rocks — the issue in the next six months for this industry is not going to be consolidation. It’s going to be survival.

I look for us to hear about at least one major deal in the industry this month, and we may also hear about at least one other smaller one.

As for Chapter 11 filings, I think SkyBus is in trouble. They are holding a $20 fare sale — and remember — this fare level would be in addition to their “guaranteed” bank of $10 seats on every plane.

The airline had a horrendous Christmas season — with many operational difficulties and many unhappy customers.

This $20 fare sale the airline just announced? Familiar with the phrase, “Must raise cash?”

And hey, while we are dragging out phrases from the “Airline Bankruptcy Primer” remember the term, “pre-packaged bankruptcy?”

I would not be surprised if we don’t already have one of those sitting on the shelf. Or if it is not already on the shelf, an older version that was on the shelf is in the process of  being edited now to reflect changed conditions.

Any bets as to which airline I’m talking about?

I’ll give you a hint. They fly lots of airplanes that go through a lot of jet fuel.

And a pre-packaged bankruptcy would be one way to make all of those airplanes go away. Rather quickly.

It would also do other things.

We’ll see, but I’m afraid, unless economic conditions dramatically improve (and PBB subscribers know I am in full Ratty Old Bear Suit regalia on that question) — we are looking at a dramatically difficult six months ahead in this industry.

As you would expect, the continued market obsession with the price of oil has airline stocks on the run — again.

Yes, folks, this is pretty serious stuff.

A look at the usual suspects today shows an average decline of 2%-3% being posted by most of them, although one airline stock is really taking a beating.

Shares of Mesa Air Group were down more than 7% the last time I looked, a drop which has brought the shares down to $2.78.

Seems that the folks on Wall Street were not impressed by the airline’s press release today, which announced a number of management moves, along with the announcement that it had named Jorn Bates as COO of the airline.

Bates is an ex-Delta guy — who was brought over to Mesa last January.

All of the moves announced by the airline were internal shuffles. No big changes here. Or as one person said to me today, beating me to the obvious, “This look a little like a re-arranging of the deck chairs.”

Last five days of trading in Mesa Air Group stock:

Ticker: (Nasdaq:Mesa)