PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1We’re back! Hello my friends. Yes, the holidays are finally over and it’s time to get back to business. PlaneBusiness.

This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

This week we try to regroup from the last three weeks of too much food, too much food, and well, too much food. Meanwhile, over the last week the airline industry has tried to recover from too much cold, too many passengers, and too much snow. Yes, it’s been a tad nasty out there. For those of you who live in Chicago, our deepest condolences. When the fuel and the glycol freezes, there just ain’t a whole lot else you can do but wait it out. At least the city has great restaurants.

This week we do, of course, talk about the weather-related issues that affected the industry over the last week. In addition the new FAA FAR 117 regs went into effect on Jan. 4. There was some whining from some airlines this week claiming that the FAR 117 changes were making recovery that much more difficult — and I’m sure that is true to an extent. But most airlines did a pretty good job at getting their operations back up and running. With one glaring exception.

That exception of course was JetBlue. The airline was forced to essentially shut down operations on the East Coast this week, as the airline’s operations collapsed under the weight of, well, having a route structure that is heavily weighted to the East Coast.

Some airlines did better than others helping passengers with cancelled flights, and once again, the importance of Twitter and its place as a “go-to” way to directly connect with someone at an airline who can help a passenger is becoming more and more obvious.

Phone lines to most airlines were jammed — but some airlines did much better than others at helping passengers directly using social media. We talk more about that this week.

Of course, this week is our big year-end issue in terms of airline stock performance as well. We look at the three airline stocks that notched triple-digit gains in 2013, we look at the winners from the fourth quarter, and of course, we pay homage to the bankrupt shares of AMR Corp. When trading was finally halted in the shares in December, prior to the switchover to AAL shares, the gain for the year exceeded 1300%.

History was made. We’ll never see anything like this again. Not in any other bankruptcy. (And I’m not just talking airline bankruptcies).

We go over the latest DOT Air Consumer Travel Report Stats for the month of October that were released while we were on hiatus. Short and sweet? Delta Air Lines maintained its position as king of the legacies, and Southwest and AirTran continue to struggle as the two airlines attempt to merge their operations.

What will we see happen in 2014? We put the Karnak hat on and give it a shot. This week we talk about the three big guys. Next week — we’ll tackle the rest.

Meanwhile, it’s crunch time at American Eagle. The regional carrier of American Airlines, which is now just one of the regional airlines serving American Airlines announced in December it is changing its name and its logo. Meanwhile, this was all announced as pilots at the airline and management continue to attempt to negotiate a new tentative agreement.

Negotiations were scheduled for this week but as of now, I have not heard any news yay or nay. We know the playbook here. Too many regional airlines chasing too few opportunities means the major players are now calling the shots. Same here. Management says it has to have more concessions to bring costs in line with other regional providers.

All this, the 100th anniversary of commercial air travel, our opinion on the “tail vote” at American and much, much, more in this week’s issue.

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

hollyxmasHello everyone! Our last issue of PlaneBusiness Banter for 2013 is now posted!

I’m sure you will not be surprised to find out that this week’s issue is dominated by coverage of Monday’s events in Dallas. That’s right. US Airways and American Airlines are now officially merged, trading under the ticker symbol AAL. While they are merged, as most of you know, both airlines will continue to operate as separate entities until the carrier can obtain a Single Operating Certificate. But in the meantime, look for codesharing to start soon, we expect to see some schedule changes announced shortly and today, the airline announced a new regional jet order.

It’s not going to be quiet around here.

It was a pretty spectacular day at Centreport on Monday. We were there, and we’ll tell you all about it.

All in all, a definite shift in culture going on at Centreport. The employees of American deserve it.

In other news, Delta Air Lines held their annual Investor Day presentation in New York on Wednesday. We’ve got a copy of the presentation deck for subscribers. As I say in this week’s issue, the airline was specific, thorough, and extremely helpful in providing information about what the airline intends to do in 2014 and how it plans to do it. We like that.

What can we say about the phenomenally successful WestJet Christmas video? Except that at last glance it had been viewed more than 15 million times. Bravo. Best airline Christmas video ever!

This week we also talk to our mole at the North Pole, Clyde the Elf. Clyde once again graciously (and secretly) gave us access to airline CEO letters to Santa this week. Boy, did we learn a lot!

Last week was not a good week for airline stocks. Hey, it happens. Rising oil prices are a short-term headache. I’m not overly concerned.

All this and much, much, more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter.

 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

dfw Hello everyone! Yes, I come to you this afternoon from a not-so-lovely part of the world. Dallas Ft. Worth is now “entombed” as one of our subscribers put it today under about 5-6 inches of ice and sleet. The airport is a holding pen for tired passengers, most of whom aren’t going anywhere. As for me, I am going to consider myself lucky if I get out of the driveway and down the road to the big hoopla celebration Monday morning as the new American Airlines Group takes to the skies. You see, temperatures are just going to get lower all weekend. Not higher. Yep. It’s Super Bowl Week all over again. Solid as a rock out there.

Our apologies for being a day late this week. But the WWH lost power yesterday as a result of a tree falling across some power lines down the street. We were finally brought back on line earlier today. Yes, it’s been a little hectic around here.

Aside from this less-than-desirable state of affairs that Mother Nature has decided to throw in our direction, this week in PBB we are talking all kinds of things. First, there were some serious management shifts, departures, and new titles announced at United Airlines yesterday and today. We’ll tell you who is out, who is still in, and who had some responsibilities altered.  Oh, and yes, I think the person who owned the dog that ate the demand forecast in the third quarter? Yeah, I think he’s left the building.

Meanwhile, we update you on the latest news concerning the slot wars. You know — the fight for the slots that American and US Airways have had to cough up as part of their deal with the Department of Justice. Looks like Virgin America and Southwest are the winners at LGA — but what about DCA? Better yet, the catfight for American’s gates at Love Field just escalated up a couple of notches this week as well. Delta has already gone public with its desire to keep the gates its leases from American there. Now Southwest Airlines says it wants them.

Let the fight commence.

It was a good week for airline stocks last week. We’ll update you on all that. Energy prices have been on a bit of an up and down run the last week or so though. We’ll explain why that is the case as well.

Finally, we give you a peek at the Business Travel Hall of Fame Dinner we attended this week. Former American Airlines Chairman and CEO Robert Crandall was certainly making the rounds of the event — or should I say he was making the most of the fact that neither Gordon Bethune nor Herb Kelleher was there. It was a great night. Nothing like being at the St. Regis in New York for Christmas.

All this, and much more, including a profit warning from Qantas, Southwest’s new route cuts, and a great quote of the week, in this week’s edition of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

 

 

Turkey Day Edition of PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Gobble, gobble, gobble. This week’s Turkey Day Edition of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

Clearly the big news is that which came down this morning — U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane approved AMR’s restructuring plan which means the airline can now exit bankruptcy and merge with US Airways. 

It’s been one long two years.

Closing date is now set for Dec. 9, as had been anticipated.

But if you think this means the DOJ anti-trust case is over, au contraire. The fight over just which airlines are going to allowed to bid on slots that are given up by the two airlines has just started. Then there is the matter of the two gates at Dallas Love Field that American Airlines has been ordered to give up as part of the DOJ settlement. Delta Air Lines wants to keep them. (They currently lease them from American). And they want even more gates if they can get them.

But didn’t the DOJ say these divested assets had to go to “low fare” airlines? That’s correct.

But Delta is arguing that is not fair. I’m sure United is going to join into the fray in a big way before this is all over as well.

This fight is going to get much more heated before it is settled. No question.

This week I also talk about my recent trip to United Airline’s Global Gateway at Newark. I learned a lot about the changes that are coming to the airport, including a $100 million plus in-line baggage screening and delivery system, removal of the old blocky structures that used to house the screeners in the check-in areas, a new Global Services check-in location, 20% more capacity for check-ins at Terminal C, and all kinds of other goodies.

Oh and United’s new satellite-based Wi-Fi product? It rocks. It’s fast. It’s awesome.

Of course the only problem is that it is not installed on that many aircraft yet.

But trust me — you’ll love it.

Business Travel News issued its annual Corporate Travel Airline Survey last week. The survey questions corporate travel buyers. Last year Delta Air Lines dominated the survey. This year they did it again, but we had a lot movement underneath Delta, and in fact, American picked up some ground on Delta in a couple of categories. But the airline that posted the biggest improvement year-over-year was……

You’ll have to read this week’s issue to find out.

It was another great week for airline stocks last week. We tell you who was naughty and nice.

All this — and much, much more, in this week’s Turkey Day edition of PlaneBusiness Banter. 

 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

We have a reasonably big issue this week, as we have two full in-depth earnings reports — WestJet and Air Canada. We also look at the recent earnings results from IAG, parent of British Airways, Air France/KLM, Lufthansa, Ryanair and LATAM. 

Of that group, which airline posted the best results for 3Q13? That’s right. IAG Group. Even though Iberia is still a part of the company!

Meanwhile, there was a lot going on in the industry this week. We have more news on the American Airlines- US Airways merger. There was a little session with the U.S. Bankruptcy Judge on Wednesday, but I’m not worried about that. I’ll tell you why.

Meanwhile, next Monday is the big day. That is the day that U.S. Bankruptcy  Judge Sean Lane is expected to accept the AMR plan of reorganization and set them free. Free to merge with US Airways. 

The chatter we continue to hear says that we should have a formal merger announcement sometime around Dec. 9.

In other news, it looks like we are headed for a nasty, ugly, expensive representational election for the combined flight attendant group at the New American. I’m disappointed. While membership of APFA outnumbers that of the AFA at US Airways, by a significant margin, APFA had been working for months with leaders of the AFA to bring them in as part of the process — rather than simply battening down the hatches in preparation for an unnecessary representational fight.

The two sides seemed very close the last month to coming to terms on an agreement that would have allowed leaders of both unions to work on a combined contract. But all of that now appears to have blown up — as AFA notified APFA that a meeting scheduled for 11/27 would now look at a totally new agenda.

In a letter that was publicly distributed this week, APFA President Laura Glading wrote the head of the AFA group at US Airways and effectively said, “No thanks.”

I think we’re headed to a representational fight here. And it didn’t have to be this way.

We have the latest DOT Air Consumer Travel Report numbers for September. Delta Air Lines continue to lead the legacy carriers in every metric, while Southwest Airlines and AirTran continued to post less-than-optimal numbers. Southwest, in fact, posted the worst on-time performance of any airline that reports to the DOT in September.

However — the airline still managed to take the first place nod in terms of having garnered the fewest number of complaints.

It was a great week for airline stocks. We’ll tell you why. We’ll also tell you why the New American Airlines will be listed on the Nasdaq and not the New York Stock Exchange.

And what is the deal with the American Airlines A319s and their seats? Is it the fault of maintenance being too rough on them when doing security inspections or the fault of the manufacturer? Whatever the reason, they continue to crack. Reliability on the aircraft is apparently abysmal as a result.

All of this and much, much more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter!

 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello earthlings! This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted. No surprise, I’m sure, but we are talking a lot about the DOJ settlement with American Airlines and US Airways that was released on Tuesday. We tell you what the deal really means — and not what the headlines you’ve been reading say it means.

We also give you a head’s up on what is now going to be the best show to watch — the fight for slots  the two airlines are being forced to divest themselves of. DOJ wants “LCCs” to get them. Only problem — what is an LCC? And why shouldn’t other airlines like Delta and United have a crack at them as well? Is Alaska an LCC? The fireworks haven’t even started yet.

We also take an in-depth look at 3Q13 earnings from both SkyWest and Republic. 

Oh, and how about that IAM vote that came down last night in Everett? Where will the 777X be built? Dunno. But the possibilities just got a whole lot more complicated.

Lots of other stuff as well! I’m off to New York. Have a great Thursday everybody!

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hi guys! Just a quick note before I have to run out the door to let you know that this week’s humongous, ginormous (are those really words?) mega-earnings issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted!

We have in-depth earnings reviews of Hawaiian Holdings, parent of Hawaiian Airlines; Spirit Airlines; JetBlue Airways; Allegiant Travel Company, parent of Allegiant Airlines; and Alaska Air Group, parent of Alaska Airlines. 

More in a bit. Need to get out of here and off to a meeting. Talk to you soon!

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. A nice Happy Halloween to you all!

This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now ready for perusal by all card-carrying subscribers.

This week’s issue is a beast — a mega-earnings issue in which we take an in-depth look at the 3Q13 results issued last week by Delta Air Lines, US Airways, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines. We also have PlaneBusiness Earnings Summaries posted for Allegiant, Spirit, JetBlue, Hawaiian and Alaska Air Group. 

The long and the short? Delta Air Lines rocked the house, US Airways did extremely well, Southwest Airlines came in a bit better than expected, but United Airlines disappointed.

We also have the latest DOT Air Consumer Travel Report numbers this week.  Again — Delta Air Lines more or less dominated the results for the big four.

Of special note this evening, following up on court documents Monday in which American Airlines and US Airways and the Department of Justice disclosed that they had agreed on a mediator, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that US Airways and American are preparing a settlement package to present to the DOJ.

This is pretty much what we thought would happen. In fact, the Judge in the trial had told both sides to seek mediation.

But as I write in PBB this week, it’s all about those depositions. Once those start to be taken and both sides get access to the information contained in them, then the strength or the weakness of a particular case begins to take shape. According to the court on Monday, 19 depositions had already been taken from execs at both airlines. Another nine depositions have been taken from “other airline executives.”

I still think we will see a negotiated settlement of this case.

On that note, it’s time for us to sign off. It’s been a long day — very long issue this week.

Have fun later today. But don’t eat too much of the candy corn. That stuff is evil.

 

 

 

 

 

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello earthlings. I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. It certainly was a gorgeous one here in the DFW Metroplex. I love this time of year. I wish the clock could just stop and let us enjoy it all just a bit longer.

The latest issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted.

This week we are all over the place. Literally.

Last week I traveled to Mexico City where I participated on a panel discussion as part of the Travelport e-Volve 2013 conference.  More than 1000 folks signed up for the event. I’ll tell you why I think the event was not only a positive in terms of Travelport and its attempts to build client relationships, but because it was an effective and efficient way for developers and buyers to meet one-on-one.

Speaking of corporate travel, this week I follow up with my rather short, yet cryptic comment last week in PBB about the Global Business Travel Association. This week I explain why I think the organization needs an extreme makeover — as it has strayed way too far from what its role is as a industry organization and morphed into a money-making machine.

I have news for GBTA — for-profit entities can do the “tradeshow” conference better. And they are. That’s not why people pay GBTA dues. Nor is it why they belong to GBTA chapters.

In other news, JetBlue announced its new city last week (Detroit) and American Airlines announced it was shutting down its Haneda/JFK route. The airline also announced new nonstop service between DFW and Hong Kong and Shanghai.

This week we have a great new piece of analysis by our PlaneBusiness airline dork, analyst, and contributing editor, Brett Snyder.

With all the flak out there these days about just how “low” the fares at Southwest Airlines are or are not, we decided to take a look at how fares and total revenues have fared (pun intended) at both Southwest, as well as its competitors, over the last few years.

I think subscribers will find the graphs quite telling.

First, fares and total revenues have shot up at Southwest at a much higher rate than any other airline in the U.S. since 2009. Second, this has helped to create a nice “comfy” pricing umbrella for the likes of Spirit, Allegiant, and Frontier to position themselves under.

It also means that the rest of the industry has benefited as well, as other airlines have also been able to raise fares.

But the third point is this one — just how much higher can Southwest raise fares? It would seem the airline is now in a rather precarious pricing situation.

So why did all of this start in 2009? Simple. That is when the previously-advantageous fuel hedges at Southwest turned in the opposite direction.

To put it another way, it’s when the airline finally had to deal with fuel costs on a similar level as its competitors. Result? Fares have rocketed.

Airline stocks enjoyed one heck of a great week last week, with shares of Spirit Airlines and bankrupt AMR leading the pack. We update you on the latest analyst musings about those bankrupt AMR shares.

A heads-up. This week U.S. airlines begin to report 3Q13 earnings. Seven airlines will report between Tuesday and Thursday.

Lucky us. 🙂

All of this and more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted!

home-typewriter copy 1Hello everyone. This week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter is now posted. It was another travel week for moi, as I talked about all things airline-related last week at the Business Travel News 2014 Trends and Forecasts conference in San Francisco.

This week I travel to Mexico City, where I will moderate a panel at the Travelport Evolve Conference. Yep, you can rest assured that NDCs, GDS offerings, and merchandising platforms will be on the agenda!

This week in PlaneBusiness Banter we are talking about a wide variety of topics. First, I update everyone on the current situation with the American Airlines/US Airways merger. I’ve changed my mind on the chances for a potential settlement. I’ll give you all the details.

In addition, the big news from last week that rocked the aviation world has to be the fact that Airbus has wrestled Boeing out of its cozy situation in Japan. That’s right. Japan Airlines announced an order for Airbus A350s.

This was no small deal. Remember that All Nippon Airways is now in negotiations with both Boeing and Airbus for replacements for its aging 777 fleet. Now — all bets are off. Most watchers of the aircraft side of the business say the ANA deal is now a “must-win” deal for Boeing. 

Airline stocks had a relatively slow week last week, but two airline stocks posted nice double-digit gains — AIr Canada and Spirit. Do you know why? We’ll tell you.

We also review both the September RASM estimates and traffic numbers in this week’s issue. Short and sweet? September turned into a dynamite month revenue wise for the U.S. airline group — with one big exception. United Airlines. 

United had already pre-warned about lower than expected  3Q13 revenue performance. This was just the icing on an already somewhat less-than-tasty cake.

We also talk a lot this week about the problem of onboard Wi-Fi. It’s great. When it works. And for god’s sake, don’t make it free. There is not enough capacity and then it doesn’t work for anybody.

That’s a very short version of our discussion.

All this and much, much, more in this week’s issue of PlaneBusiness Banter.