Monthly Archives: July 2008

What A Waste of Resources: ATA Pushes Airlines To Fight the “Oil Speculation” Boogeyman

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If you are a member of a U.S. airline frequent flyer group, many of you may have received a message that looks something like this in the last couple of days. This particular message was sent out by United.

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An Open letter to All Airline Customers:

Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by pulling together, we can all do something to help now.

For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers. Since high oil prices are partly a response to normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on increased energy supplies and conservation. However, there is another side to this story because normal market forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation.

Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight. Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper.

The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil markets and solve this growing problem.

We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com.

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The letter was then signed by the Chairman and CEOs of all the U.S. major airlines.

Who’s behind this effort?

The Air Transport Association.

A couple of weeks ago I took the ATA to task for whining to Congress about this issue in PlaneBusiness Banter.

But apparently somebody still thinks it is a good idea for the airline industry to play the role of “victim” and cry that “speculators” are running up the price of oil. This means that many who receive this message will now assume that if Congress would just DO SOMETHING about this — the problem will go away.

Hogwash.

I’m sorry folks, but one, even if Congress were to pass tighter restrictions on energy traders, that is not going to stop the free markets from working as they always have. Secondly, rampant speculation is NOT what is causing oil prices to rise.

Finally, as a report on NPR the other day noted, just who are these “speculators?” Evil Wall Street types who like to “prey” on defenseless industries and the American public?

Not hardly. According to their research, pension funds, yes, maybe yours if you even have one left (and considering you may work in this industry that is a big assumption) have bulked up on energy contracts big time, to the tune of a triple digit increase in the last 5 years.

Why? Maybe it is because they thought it would be profitable.

Duh.

Of all the problems affecting this industry that cry out for leadership — ATC issues, overcrowding in the skies, slot restrictions, tax issues, and of course, the ongoing saga of the FAA — the ATA has decided that this one is the one that is so dire that it has enlisted the air of their respective members — and their members have now taken the straw-man “crisis” to the traveling public.

And then the industry wonders why Congress and those in Washington don’t take the industry seriously.

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More Not-So Good News: Northwest Gives More Details; Delta Begins to Draw Down Cincinnati

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Yesterday Northwest Airlines came out with more details on how they plan to cut back on operations and employees.

The airline said that it is going to eliminate 2500 jobs, which represents 8.1% of the airline’s total employee workforce.

But the big news yesterday from Northwest was the fact that it joined the $15/bag fee crowd. The airline also announced fees for frequent flier ticket redemptions that ranged from $25 to $100. These are the steepest redemption fees yet announced by a U.S. airline.

Today, Delta finally announced a move that all of us in the industry had expected — even though Delta CEO Richard Anderson and Northwest CEO Doug Steenland have repeatedly told employees and analysts that the two airlines did not plan to make massive cuts in the hub operations of either airline.

Well, Richard and Doug can now thank high oil prices for a nice cover.

Today Delta announced that it plans to cut its capacity at the Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International Airport by 23% this fall.

We’re still waiting for those Memphis announcements. Trust me. They’re coming.

This news comes after Comair said Tuesday that it was cutting 300 pilot positions, as well as 220 flight attendants, after it grounds 14 aircraft.

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Virgin America: Major Shake-Up in the Works?

800Px-Virgin America A320 Cabin

Just a head’s up. Something seems to be afoot with Virgin America.



I’m hearing everything from a major “restructuring” of the airline to rumors that the airline is going to abandon long-haul transcons completely. (A little hard to believe since their entire business product is geared to long-haul flying, but anyway….we all know they are losing their butts on that flying…and well… whatever.)

Could CEO Dave Cush and company be out the door? Or will we just see some major shift of the product offering? Not sure, but we’ve just received too many related notes concerning the airline today and read too much chatter on our usual airline geek hangouts not to think there is not some truth behind them.

Stay tuned, as they say.

In addition, we’ve been following the latest developments in the ongoing attempt by Virgin America to block the DOT from releasing its operational and financial numbers in PlaneBusiness Banter.

Essentially Virgin had requested that the DOT treat this information as “confidential” so that it would not be released publicly.

Right.

The move was made in an attempt to keep competitors and folks like you and me from accessing the airline’s financial and T-1 data.

We all know what the procedure is with the DOT. Because the airline filed for the request, then it starts an entire procedural process that takes up time. On June 30, the DOT finally denied the airline its request. But not before other major airlines told the DOT that if they did not hurry up and deny the request, that they all would ask for the same “confidential” treatment.

Tuesday Virgin filed a response to the DOT’s ruling.

We’re getting closer.

On a quick side note, actually Virgin, Republic and Shuttle America all filed responses — as Republic and Shuttle America have also been trying to pull the same stunt.

You can access the DOT dockets here. The Virgin docket is DOT-OST-2008-010.

Nasty Day on Wall Street: Airline Stocks Stung

Bear-Market-Torres-Gemelas

The official uniform of Wall Street traders is now our worn, but still usable Ratty Old Bear Suit.

As of today, both the Dow and the Nasdaq have now fallen more than 21% since October. The Dow ended today down 236.77 points, or 2.08%, while the Nasdaq was down 59.55 points or 2.6% on the day.

While oil prices ended up only a penny on the day, closing at 136.05, airline stocks still got hammered.

The biggest losers in the sector included: AirTran, which took a huge 17% drop today, closing at 1.82; Continental, where shares dropped 11%, closing at 9.16; Delta Air Lines, which posted a 9.6% drop to 5.28; Northwest Airlines which saw shares drop a hefty 16% to 6.30; and Mesa Air Group, which saw its shares down by 12% to 37 cents on the back of a less than positive June traffic report.

As for the hefty drop in AirTran stock, was this a “delayed” reaction? Or is there something else out there about to drop? The airline announced yesterday that it plans to furlough 180 pilots, 300 flight attendants, cut capacity further, and cut other wages by 10%.

As for the Mesa drop, the traffic report for the airline was telling. Especially the go! results.

For June, the airline reported that load factor fell to 78.62% from 81.02% a year earlier.

Traffic fell 15% to 526.2 million revenue passenger miles in June 2008 from 621.1 million revenue passenger miles in June 2007. Capacity also fell 13% to 669.3 million available seat miles in June from 766.6 million available seat miles in the year-ago period.

As for go!, the airline reported a load factor of 68.6%, which is down about 3.5% from a year earlier. Yes, while total passenger numbers were up – the airline threw so much capacity in the market after Aloha shut down that its loads were actually lower than when Aloha was still flying.

Brilliant. And probably not very profitable at current fuel prices.

Not a good day for the things with wings …at all. Of all the airline stocks we track, the vast majority posted losses on the day.

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ExpressJet Shuts Down Branded Flying Operation

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Coming on the heels of last week’s announcement that Delta Air Lines and ExpressJet were terminating their regional flying agreement effective Sept. 1, ExpressJet announced today that it will also end its branded flying operation effective Sept. 2.

The 39 aircraft the airline is currently using in these operations will be returned to the lessor no later than June 2009.

This will leave ExpressJet with 30 aircraft that it will continue to fly as part of its charter operation, ExpressJet Corporate Aviation, and 205 aircraft which it will fly for Continental Airlines.

Shame. Everyone I knew who had flown the new branded flying product had good things to say about it. Given the airline’s options at the time — I’m still not one to jump on management for what they tried to pull off. The basics of this business plan were not the same as the ill-fated Indy Air.

Alas, just not enough profit margin in flying a branded 50-seater operation these days.

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‘Recombobulation Area’ — Security humor at MKE

It’s OK to laugh at airport security in Milwaukee’s Mitchell International Airport. Or, at least at that little zone just past security. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out a new sign that went up last month in Concourse C touting the zone as the “Recombobulation Area”. It’s that place you put yourself back together — shoes, belt, laptop, jackets, and the occasional titanium hip — after the discombobulation of going through security.
Concourse C is home to flights for United Express, Air Canada, American Eagle, Frontier, US Airways Express, Delta and Delta Connection, and AirTran.
Considering the state of Midwest Airlines, perhaps its a good thing they didn’t hang the sign in Concourse D.

Southwest Airlines: Gary Lets the WestJet Cat Out of the Bag

Cat's Out Of The Bag

Suppose your airline was about to announce the first international codesharing agreement of its life.

Suppose this is a news nugget that you would want to see get maximum media attention.

Then, suppose your CEO just kind of let the news fall out of his mouth as part of a longer interview with a major newspaper.

Well, that’s exactly what appears to have happened when, in a long interview published in the  Chicago Tribune Sunday, reporter Julie Johnsson wrote,  “For the first time in its history, Southwest is preparing to venture outside the U.S., to Canada, via a marketing alliance that will be announced this summer, [Southwest CEO Gary] Kelly said.”

Now, the fact that Southwest and WestJet might be considering a link-up should come as no surprise to anybody. I even alluded to the possibility in a recent PlaneBusiness Banter. It is a natural fit in many ways.

But that’s not the point.

The point is, did Gary really say this to the reporter?

If he did, then, well, there is really only one potential marketing partner for Southwest in Canada, and it’s not Air Canada.

So if he said this to this reporter, he essentially let the cat out of the bag. Before either airline had made an official announcement of the fact. While Southwest has talked in generalities about their “international” intentions, this was, as far as I know, the most direct comment in reference to Canada, including a timetable, that I had heard.

We hear there is now some “scrambling” going on in certain quarters, and that we may have an “official announcement” of what Gary basically told everybody Sunday in the Chicago Tribune this week. Which, we hear, is just a tad bit earlier than had been planned.

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Happy Fourth of July

Dreamweenie

All of us at the PlaneBusiness Worldwide Headquarters wish all of you a great Fourth of July holiday weekend, complete with plastic forks, paper plates, baked beans, barbecued ribs, grilled hamburgers, homemade potato salad, cole slaw, corn on the cob, cold beer, and, of course…..

HOT DOGS.

Which reminds me. PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers will get to enjoy our annual PlaneBusiness Ode to a Hot Dog column this week.

Hey, we all need more humor in our life these days. Yes? Yes.