Tag Archives: Southwest Airlines

Airline Stocks Tumble as It’s One Messy Day On the Street

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Poking our head around the damage from today’s Wall Street activities, it was not a good day for the airline stocks, as almost every one of them ended lower for the day.

While the Dow Jones Industrials were down as much as 200 points earlier in the day, the Dow ended the day down 80.05 points, or 1.09% for the day.

However, the Dow Transports and the AMEX Airline Index both had a more miserable run of it. The AMEX Airline Index ended the day down a little more than 4%, closing at 16.43, while the Dow Jones Transportation Index ended down 4%, closing at 2602.06.

The top losers for the day included: AirTran, which lost 9%, closing at 3.27; Alaska, which lost 7%, closing at 22.27; JetBlue which lost 7%, closing at 4.26; US Airways, which lost 10%, closing at 3.30; Southwest Airlines, which dropped another 7%, closing at 6.07; and Continental, which ended the day down 6%, closing at 11.15.

Ugly day.

Readers Write In on Continental Express Crash: Pilot Actions Could Have Been Warranted

Thanks for your feedback on the news concerning Southwest’s move into Boston. I’ll strip off names and summarize comments I’ve received via email later today.

But first — let’s talk about what has been going on of late concerning the NTSB and their investigation concerning the actions of the pilot in the crash of Pinnacle/Colgan/Continental Express Flight 3407 last week.

If you are like me, you probably did a double take when you read the the Wall Street Journal article yesterday in which the paper reported that “evidence suggests pilot error” as the likely cause of the crash. The New York Times then ran with a story that said that the “crew may have overreacted” after the auto pilot system pointed the plane’s nose down to generate speed. No sources were named in either paper’s reports.

While officially the NTSB has not publicly made such comments, the assumption would have to be made that someone on the inside of the investigation was feeding both news sources.

Enter a number of our pilot readers.

Here is a “Read Before Fly” announcement that was sent to Southwest Airlines’ pilots yesterday. Sound familiar?

Last night more than one pilot sent me a copy. And they weren’t all Southwest pilots. Apparently the notice was posted on the PPRUNE site, or at least that is what one American Airlines‘ pilot wrote me.

___________

Safety Alert 2009-01 – February 18, 2009

There is a potentially significant hazard concerning the ILS to runway 23 in BUF.

Information has been received indicating it is possible to obtain a significant nose pitch up, in some cases as much as 30 degrees, if the glide slope is allowed to capture before established on centerline. Pilots who are preparing to configure and land have the potential to experience abrupt pitch up, slow airspeed, and approach to stall if conditions present themselves in a certain manner.

This effect is the result of an earthen obstruction close enough to the ILS to affect the integrity of the glide slope signal. This has resulted in the issuance of an advisory given on ATIS which states that “the ILS Glide Slope for runway 23 is unusable beyond 5 degrees right of course.” When attempting to intercept the runway 23 ILS from right traffic, the ILS glide slope indication may read full deflection down. Just prior to intercept it may then move up in such as manner as to enable approach mode to capture in such a way as to result in a nose up pitch and loss of airspeed. Southwest Airlines has issued a notice reading: “Until further notice, when executing the KBUF ILS/LOC Runway 23, DO NOT select Approach Mode until established on the localizer inbound.”

This issue is being addressed on several levels in an attempt to address procedures, facilities, and communication regarding this matter. If you experience any issues related to this, please file an ASAP form and or call SWAPA Safety at SWAPA toll free 800-969-7972.

____________

Interesting, eh? Especially because if this is the case, then the pilot could have been doing exactly what he was supposed to have been doing. He was trying to save the aircraft, not stall it. My point in all of this is that no one involved with the NTSB investigation should be “leaking” information to news sources such as that which was obviously leaked for publication in both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal Wednesday. Especially given this advisory that was just issued to Southwest Airlines’ pilots.

It’s Official: Southwest Moving into Boston

It appears our flurry-ette of emails this afternoon was spot on.

An article posted just a few minutes ago on the Boston Globe’s online site says that Southwest Airlines’ CEO Gary Kelly told them in an “exclusive” interview that the airline plans to begin flying out of Logan International Airport by the fall with between eight and 12 daily departures.

Now go talk amongst yourselves about this.

I have my own thoughts. What are yours?

Rumor of The Day: Southwest Airlines to Boston?

I’m sitting at the vet’s office with an ailing Momma kitty. But in a space of about 25 minutes I’ve received a flurry… Well maybe a flurry-ette of emails saying that Southwest Airlines is going to announce new service to… Boston??

This makes no sense to me, given the airline currently flies into both Manchester and Providence.

I guess we can just wait and see what happens. Kind of the same here. Waiting for the results from Momma kitty’s blood test.

Anyone else have any intel?

(On the Southwest rumor.. Not Momma kitty’s bloodtest.)

Looks Like Southwest Airlines’ Pilots and the Airline Have a New Tentative Agreement

We hear from one of our Southwest Airlines‘ friends that the pilots at Southwest, who are represented by their own independent union, SWAPA, and the airline, have come to terms on a new tentative agreement.

Here is an excerpt from Carl Kuwitzky’s blog that was blasted to pilots this afternoon. Carl is the President of SWAPA.


“Last night SWAPA agreed in principle on a new five year contract with the Company through August 31, 2011. This new contract includes the following: stronger scope language as well as codeshare restrictions not previously released including no domestic codeshare, increase in pay rates including retroactive pay, increase in 401K match, improved disability program and streamlined/improved scheduling and work rule language. Additionally we have retained the Lance Captain program and ELITT albeit with changes to current language. Our Negotiating Committee (NC) is continuing to negotiate final language and when that work is completed will present a Tentative Agreement to the BoD for approval. If the BoD approves the new contract it will be sent to the membership for final ratification. I anticipate a BoD meeting in late February or early March to review the TA.”

This news comes as it was announced today that the mechanics at the airline approved their proposed TA with the airline by a 61% majority.

Southwest Airlines’ Stock Goes Up, Goes Back Down

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I’ve had a couple of emails this morning from readers wondering why Southwest Airlines’ shares, which rose yesterday on the news that the airline was essentially shutting down the growth faucets, are now moving in the opposite direction today.

As of this posting, shares of Southwest have lost 17% for the day, now trading around 8.10 a share, down from their close yesterday of 9.81.

So what gives?

Simple. The market reacted positively yesterday to the headline news: growth being curbed.

Today, investors have had more time to think about the rest of the news the airline gave us yesterday. And, investors have also had the benefit of a number of airline analyst research notes on the results.

From Gary Chase, analyst with Barclays:

…LUV results were better than we expected, largely on better passenger revenue performance. Non-fuel costs came in a touch better, but remain under pressure. We expect LUV will benefit from industry capacity reductions and lower fuel prices, but don’t see nearly as compelling an opportunity in LUV shares as we see in other names…….2009 estimate is reduced from $0.65 to $0.45, principally on lower passenger revenue assumptions.We’ve been modeling RASM out-performance for LUV relative to other LFCs and the industry at-large given its revenue initiatives, but think it will be increasingly difficult for the company to outperform the industry to that extent given economic slowing.”

From Kevin Crissey, UBS Securities:

…”Our view on the stock

We view LUV’s valuation as getting stretched. It is trading at we view as an ‘okay’ 6x 2009 EV/EBITDAR but a robust 16x our 2009 EPS estimate. With growth non-existent, unit costs rising, economic fuel prices above peers and the balance sheet okay but less impressive, we question whether there is upside potential to valuation from here. We are cautious on LUV and rate it Neutral…”

From Ray Neidl, Calyon Securities:

“We believe investors should take profit,” Neidl said in a research note this morning as the firm dropped its target price on the shares from $8 to $7. The firm also cuts its rating on the stock from underperform to “sell.”

When was the last time we saw a “sell” rating on shares of Southwest?

Southwest Airlines: No More Growth


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Southwest Airlines was the third major airline to report earnings this quarter, as the airline rolled out their results this morning.

The verdict?

The airline posted its second quarterly loss in a row.

The reason? Just as we saw with American and United yesterday — getting caught on the wrong side of the hedges. Fuel hedges that is.

Including special items, the airline posted a loss of $56 million or $0.08 per share. Last year the airline posted a profit of $111 million or $0.15 a share. Excluding special items, the airline posted a profit of $61 million or $0.08 a share. This compares to last year when the airline posted a profit of $87 million or $0.12 a share.

For the year, the airline posted net income of $178 million. This compares to 2007, when the airline posted net profit of $645 million or $0.84 a share. Excluding special items, full year 2008 net income was $294 million or $0.40 per diluted share, compared to $471 million, or $0.61 per share in 2007.

While these numbers would not look like numbers that would push shares higher — shares in the airline are now up about 17% on the day. Why?

The quarterly numbers are not what is pushing the shares higher.

The fact that CEO Gary Kelly came out and said that growth at the airline has been “suspended indefinitely” is the reason the shares are up.

I know, it’s convoluted.

But in the world of Wall Street — the biggest fear was that Southwest would NOT make a serious attempt to cut back on growth. Since the airline now seems determined to do so — that is seen as a positive. It is anticipated that fewer ASMs will result in higher loads and better revenues in 2009.

“I definitely want Southwest Airlinesto grow,” CEO Gary Kelly said on the airline’s conference call today. “I believe we will be able to grow, but that is certainly a secondary objective in this kind of an economic environment.”

The airline has now reduced its 2010 Boeing delivery schedule of new aircraft down to 10. The airline previously had 16 aircraft on firm order and six options for the year.

Southwest ended December with 537 aircraft. It expects to end 2009 with 535 — as lease expirations and retirements cancel out the 13 new Boeing 737-700s now expected to be delivered during the year.

Ned Walker Beefs Up the Communications At Delta Air Lines: Nabs Ed Stewart

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Whoa. Who is this handsome man?

We knew Delta Air Lines was serious about creating a real honest-to-god communications department when they hired away veteran Ned Walker from Continental Airlines.

Today that fact was made apparent once again as the airline announced that Ed Stewart has been named head of external communications for the airline.

Ed, who is currently a senior vice president at Fleishman-Hillard in Dallas, is most well-known for his 16-year stint at Southwest Airlines.

Having personally dealt with Ed many times during his time at Southwest, I can say, without question, that he was one of the best PR spokespersons any company could have asked for. Notice I said any company. Not any airline.

In terms of airline PR, he was so far ahead of the pack it wasn’t even close.

Nice move. Both for Ed and for Ned and ….Delta Air Lines.

Airline Traffic Reports Roll Out for December

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If it’s the first week of the month, that means it’s time for airline traffic reports.

And it’s time for all of us who look at them with a jaundiced eye to try and figure out what they mean. Actually all they mean is that for the month of December a particular airline did this.

In this environment, the question of whether they portend any kind of trend or not is a rather risky assumption.

The good news overall is that demand held up fairly well in December for the most part. However, one caveat. Remember that for the purposes of the reporting month, the backend of Thanksgiving travel fell into the “December” reporting month this year.

In addition to the usual traffic reports, Continental Airlines also issued its RASM estimates for the month. On that front, the news was not bad either.

Commenting on both topics, JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote this week,

“Demand weak but steady, for now. November was a noisy month, requiring yr/yr adjustments for the portion of Thanksgiving travel falling in December and a higher November weekend-to-weekday ratio (weekend revenue production is typically penalized by lower business travel). Additionally, disproportionate leisure demand in the final two weeks likely resulted in higher revenue retention as weather deteriorated across much of the country (vacationers are more apt to push on, whereas business travelers give up more easily – as did this analyst in the week before Christmas). So while December offers no assurances as to F2009’s demand outcome, the aforementioned adjustments do suggest that while weak, December does not appear to have gotten any weaker than November for Continental. Furthermore, given Continental’s recent relative RASM outperformance, our ATA December mainline RASM forecast of 2.5% does not appear to be in jeopardy.”

In terms of Continental’s RASM performance, Jamie added, “December better than feared. Continental December mainline and consolidated RASM rose 4.5% and 4%, respectively, a respectable outcome versus our more dire +1% consolidated forecast. Based on the midpoints of this guidance, consolidated revenue fell 4.5%, while yield rose 2.4%. Additionally, November’s initial 1.5% consolidated RASM midpoint was slightly lowered to +1.2%.”

As for the basics, Continental reported that consolidated RPMs were down 6.7% while capacity was down 8.1%, resulting in a 79.9% load factor, up 1.2 points from December of 2007.

United Airlines

RPMs were down 11.5% in December, as the airline slashed capacity by some 12.7%. This resulted in a load factor of 79.9%, an increase of 1.1 points from December 2007.

Note for you trend watchers: The airline reported that traffic fell faster on its Pacific and Atlantic routes. (More ammunition for the idea that the glory days of continued international growth are coming to a screeching halt.)

Southwest Airlines

RPMs were up 1.1%, while capacity declined 1%. This resulted in 1.5% increase in load factor.

This was a nice rebound from Southwest’s rather anemic November numbers.

Allegiant Airlines

RPMs were up 9.6% while capacity was down 2.6%. Ah….now here are some healthy numbers.

This resulted in the airline posing an 88.7% load factor, up from 78.9% last year. That’s a 10.2 point increase – the largest posted so far by a U.S. carrier.

Delta AIr Lines

Delta reported that RPMs were up 0.7% for the month, while capacity was down 2.4%. This resulted in a load factor increase of 2.4 points over December 2007 numbers.

Again, however, as we saw with the United numbers, the international numbers were not too pretty. The airline reported that international RPMs were up 9.2%, but capacity was up 13.7%. This resulted in a decline in load factor of 3.2 points.

American Airlines

American reported that both domestic and international traffic declined in December, unlike United and Delta, which both posted increases in their domestic traffic.

This makes sense, in that American is taking a bigger hit because of its previous heavy investment banking/Wall Street trans-Atlantic business. A fact the airline supported by its comment that its sharpest decline in international traffic was on the trans-Atlantic segment, which was down 8%.

The airline reported that domestic RPMs were down 9.6% while capacity was down 11.8%. Meanwhile international traffic was down 5.7% on a capacity reduction of only 3.2%.

Overall, the airline ended the month with a 79.2% load factor, up 0.4 points from December 2007.

AirTran

AirTran saw RPMs up 2.3% in December, while capacity was down 6.9%. This resulted in a very nice increase in load factor for the month — up 7.1 points to 79.8%.

Happy Friday: Gary Kelly’s Financial Stewardship Dinged By Chief Executive Magazine

Yours truly is in the midst of my usual two week holiday hiatus from publishing PlaneBusiness Banter this week — and in fact I’m not at either the main Worldwide Headquarters in the swamp or at the branch office in Dallas.

Today I find myself in the lovely confines of Tucson, Arizona. The sun is out — but it was a bit chilly here this morning. 33 degrees to be exact. Yes, we are on the back end of the same storm that dumped the almost four inches of snow on Las Vegas this week. The same storm that is now making life in much of the rest of the country more than miserable.

My condolences to those of you trying to fly out or into Chicago today — but for those of you on the East Coast — it’s coming your way later today. Oh, boy. Just what our friends, the things with wings, need to contend with on the weekend before Christmas.

But enough of my frigid travel travails. Let’s talk about some news of note involving the things with wings. Southwest Airlines to be precise.

Chief Executive Magazine Cites Southwest’s CEO for “Wealth Destruction”


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Chief Executive magazine used its end-of-year issue to note those CEOs who they think are both doing the best and worst jobs at creating value at their respective companies.

In its first annual Chief Executive/Applied Finance Group Wealth Creation Rankings — the magazine partnered with Applied Finance Group — creators of the Economic Margin (EM) value metric and Drew Morris, CEO of Great Numbers!

As the magazine noted in its introduction to its rankings,

“As we have seen with the recent meltdown in financial markets, value isn’t always what it appears to be. And traditional accounting measures do not count what really counts. Earnings per share (EPS) and price/earnings (P/E) ratios are based on accounting profit, which is prone to distortion and has no real relationship to wealth creation. Trying to grow earnings or EPS in the belief that the stock market will reward you with a higher share price no longer works, as investors really seek to understand the company’s underlying economic performance.

To state the obvious, navigating with instruments that mislead is dangerous. CEOs need to look at their businesses with the same wealth-creation measures that, for example, private equity and institutional investors use. Investors want to know how good a company and its leaders are at preserving and growing their capital.

Many companies have moved from accounting to economic approaches to measuring this. A few, such as EVA, are good because they reckon with the true cost of capital, but none are perfect. Our rankings rely on Economic Margin, a measure with which executives can readily manage wealth creation, and which is applicable at all levels of a company. EM is calculated as the difference between operating cash flow and an appropriate capital charge, all divided by invested capital. EM is suitable for both private and public companies and useful for making comparisons with competitors, as it’s an economic-profitability percentage, not a monetary amount.

The ranking method we used also considers management’s demonstrated ability to protect shareholder wealth and create truly valuable assets. Our intent is to advance the art, science and practice of creating wealth for a company’s owners and the associated results creation skills of its executive team.”

So who were the top ten best “wealth creators” according to this methodology?

10 Best Wealth Creators

CEO

COMPANY

1. J. Christopher Donahue

Federated Investors

2. Jeffrey P. Bezos

Amazon.com

3. Robert W. Selander

Mastercard

4. Mark Donegan

Precision Castparts

5. Hugh Grant

Monsanto

6. John W. Rowe

Exelon

7. John C. Martin, Ph.D.

Gilead Sciences

8. Daniel P. Amos

AFLAC

9. Andrea Jung

Avon

10. Clayton M. Jones

Rockwell Collins

And which CEOs were the best “wealth destroyers?”

10 Best Wealth Destroyers

CEO

COMPANY

1. James R. Tobin

Boston Scientific

2. Robert J. Coury

Mylan

3. Gary C. Kelly

Southwest Airlines

4. Herb M. Allison, Jr.

Fannie Mae

5. Eli Harari, Ph.D.

Sandisk

6. Glen F. Post, III

Centurytel

7. Larry L. Weyers

Integrys Energy

8. Steven R. Appleton

Micron Technology

9. John A. Luke, Jr.

Meadwestvaco

10. Lynn Laverty Elsenhans

Sunoco

Clearly, for our purposes here in PlaneBuzz, the only CEO of interest to us in all of this was Southwest’s Gary Kelly. Particularly because when Kelly was named as CEO of the airline, the bulk of the scuttlebutt around the announcement dealt with the fact that because he had been such an excellent CFO of the airline — that he would help shore up the airline’s financial side — and most importantly to stockholders — its stock price.

According to Chief Executive’s metric, however, Gary hasn’t fared too well over the last three years. Here is what the magazine said about Southwest.

“Gary Kelly, Southwest Airlines
Score: 6

Southwest’s low score may come as a surprise considering it’s arguably among the best-managed airlines. But it’s an airline; the only one in the S&P 500. That means planes, airport fees and lots of competition. The market is far from wild about the value of its assets. In the EM sector rankings, Southwest was grouped with other transportation companies, all of which performed better. Southwest’s EM ranged between -.5 percent (-.005) and -0.9 percent (almost -1 percent) over the 2005-07 period. While its SEC filings show a profit during this time, when Southwest’s off-balance sheet leases and other adjustments are accounted for, the picture reverses. For example, applying those adjustments to Southwest’s 2007 results increases its invested capital by $5.9 billion, or 35 percent. The $1.7 billion capital charge on this amount exceeded its $1.5 billion operating cash flow, resulting in a negative Economic Margin.”

The article is a very interesting read. Well worth it. And not just for its rather low opinion of Mr. Kelly’s ability to create and/or protect shareholder wealth at Southwest Airlines. You can access the entire article here.