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December 31, 2008

Happy New Year ......We Think

Is it the residual after-effects of having dealt with the mess that was 2008 that make the phrase "Happy New Year" sound particularly cynical this year?

I'm not sure, but I think maybe that is the case.

Then again I've never been a fan of this particular evening, which I like to call, "Amateur Drunk Night."

The good news for PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers is that if it's New Year's -- a new issue of PBB can't be far off. And it isn't. We'll be back in our usual weekly schedule of publishing again starting this weekend -- after having enjoyed our usual two week holiday publishing hiatus.

With that -- here's to a much better 2009 for everyone.


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December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays From PlaneBusiness to You


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Hello to all. It's Christmas. However, for those of you trying to fly into or out of Seattle -- it's not Christmas. It's just another day in a continuing snow and ice event.

I am back at the unseasonably balmy Worldwide Headquarters in New Orleans today, where I am currently working on a Paula Deen recipe for pumpkin pie that I first tried at Thanksgiving. It got rave reviews from the folks at the table then -- and was requested again. So yours truly is hard at work on that endeavor. Or will be after I finish this post.

Then there is the ham. You know the good thing about hams is that they are effortless. You don't have to do anything except heat them up. And you don't even have to do that if you don't want to.

Meanwhile the tree still needs to be finished, a couple of presents wrapped, and the silver polished.

Good thing we don't sit down to eat until 4!

Here's hoping that your have a great day today with family and friends -- no matter where you are. Even if those "friends" happen to be strangers in some airport or on an airplane. Or coworkers behind a ticket counter.

On Christmas, we're all family.

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December 23, 2008

Not a Good Day For A Computer Failure

image2135475845.jpgHolly here. Sitting at Phoenix Sky Harbor, gate D7. Lines are long in Southwest's concourse....an announcement just notified everone that the airline's "computers are down." Yes, there was also a request for patience.

Before I made my way through the TSA maze... I did glance at the departures board. Very glad I am not flying to the Midwest,Northwest, or West.

Speaking of security....as some of you know I am always subjected to additional screening -- the result of a big hunk of titanium that masquerades as my hip. Today... Instead of the usual pat down and wanding.... I was subjected to ... radiation!

Helped tremendously to put me in a holiday mood....just gave me a little jingle tingle.

All for now.

December 19, 2008

Happy Friday: Gary Kelly's Financial Stewardship Dinged By Chief Executive Magazine

Yours truly is in the midst of my usual two week holiday hiatus from publishing PlaneBusiness Banter this week -- and in fact I'm not at either the main Worldwide Headquarters in the swamp or at the branch office in Dallas.

Today I find myself in the lovely confines of Tucson, Arizona. The sun is out -- but it was a bit chilly here this morning. 33 degrees to be exact. Yes, we are on the back end of the same storm that dumped the almost four inches of snow on Las Vegas this week. The same storm that is now making life in much of the rest of the country more than miserable.

My condolences to those of you trying to fly out or into Chicago today -- but for those of you on the East Coast -- it's coming your way later today. Oh, boy. Just what our friends, the things with wings, need to contend with on the weekend before Christmas.

But enough of my frigid travel travails. Let's talk about some news of note involving the things with wings. Southwest Airlines to be precise.

Chief Executive Magazine Cites Southwest's CEO for "Wealth Destruction"


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Chief Executive magazine used its end-of-year issue to note those CEOs who they think are both doing the best and worst jobs at creating value at their respective companies.

In its first annual Chief Executive/Applied Finance Group Wealth Creation Rankings -- the magazine partnered with Applied Finance Group -- creators of the Economic Margin (EM) value metric and Drew Morris, CEO of Great Numbers!

As the magazine noted in its introduction to its rankings,

"As we have seen with the recent meltdown in financial markets, value isn’t always what it appears to be. And traditional accounting measures do not count what really counts. Earnings per share (EPS) and price/earnings (P/E) ratios are based on accounting profit, which is prone to distortion and has no real relationship to wealth creation. Trying to grow earnings or EPS in the belief that the stock market will reward you with a higher share price no longer works, as investors really seek to understand the company’s underlying economic performance.

To state the obvious, navigating with instruments that mislead is dangerous. CEOs need to look at their businesses with the same wealth-creation measures that, for example, private equity and institutional investors use. Investors want to know how good a company and its leaders are at preserving and growing their capital.

Many companies have moved from accounting to economic approaches to measuring this. A few, such as EVA, are good because they reckon with the true cost of capital, but none are perfect. Our rankings rely on Economic Margin, a measure with which executives can readily manage wealth creation, and which is applicable at all levels of a company. EM is calculated as the difference between operating cash flow and an appropriate capital charge, all divided by invested capital. EM is suitable for both private and public companies and useful for making comparisons with competitors, as it’s an economic-profitability percentage, not a monetary amount.

The ranking method we used also considers management’s demonstrated ability to protect shareholder wealth and create truly valuable assets. Our intent is to advance the art, science and practice of creating wealth for a company’s owners and the associated results creation skills of its executive team."

So who were the top ten best "wealth creators" according to this methodology?

10 Best Wealth Creators

CEO

COMPANY

1. J. Christopher Donahue

Federated Investors

2. Jeffrey P. Bezos

Amazon.com

3. Robert W. Selander

Mastercard

4. Mark Donegan

Precision Castparts

5. Hugh Grant

Monsanto

6. John W. Rowe

Exelon

7. John C. Martin, Ph.D.

Gilead Sciences

8. Daniel P. Amos

AFLAC

9. Andrea Jung

Avon

10. Clayton M. Jones

Rockwell Collins

And which CEOs were the best "wealth destroyers?"

10 Best Wealth Destroyers

CEO

COMPANY

1. James R. Tobin

Boston Scientific

2. Robert J. Coury

Mylan

3. Gary C. Kelly

Southwest Airlines

4. Herb M. Allison, Jr.

Fannie Mae

5. Eli Harari, Ph.D.

Sandisk

6. Glen F. Post, III

Centurytel

7. Larry L. Weyers

Integrys Energy

8. Steven R. Appleton

Micron Technology

9. John A. Luke, Jr.

Meadwestvaco

10. Lynn Laverty Elsenhans

Sunoco


Clearly, for our purposes here in PlaneBuzz, the only CEO of interest to us in all of this was Southwest's Gary Kelly. Particularly because when Kelly was named as CEO of the airline, the bulk of the scuttlebutt around the announcement dealt with the fact that because he had been such an excellent CFO of the airline -- that he would help shore up the airline's financial side -- and most importantly to stockholders -- its stock price.

According to Chief Executive's metric, however, Gary hasn't fared too well over the last three years. Here is what the magazine said about Southwest.

"Gary Kelly, Southwest Airlines
Score: 6

Southwest’s low score may come as a surprise considering it’s arguably among the best-managed airlines. But it’s an airline; the only one in the S&P 500. That means planes, airport fees and lots of competition. The market is far from wild about the value of its assets. In the EM sector rankings, Southwest was grouped with other transportation companies, all of which performed better. Southwest’s EM ranged between -.5 percent (-.005) and -0.9 percent (almost -1 percent) over the 2005-07 period. While its SEC filings show a profit during this time, when Southwest’s off-balance sheet leases and other adjustments are accounted for, the picture reverses. For example, applying those adjustments to Southwest’s 2007 results increases its invested capital by $5.9 billion, or 35 percent. The $1.7 billion capital charge on this amount exceeded its $1.5 billion operating cash flow, resulting in a negative Economic Margin."

The article is a very interesting read. Well worth it. And not just for its rather low opinion of Mr. Kelly's ability to create and/or protect shareholder wealth at Southwest Airlines. You can access the entire article here.

December 18, 2008

Let it Snow (pt. 2), 'Seriously'

Snow falling in Las Vegas yesterday, for the second time in a week, has left operations at McCarran International Airport in a virtual standstill. Need proof? Here's JetBlue's advisory from their web site:

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Seriously, it's snowing in Sin City.

Need more proof? Here's a photo of the famous Las Vegas welcome sign:

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December 15, 2008

Before You Make That Long-Haul Flight...


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Be sure and do what publishing mogul Rupert Murdoch supposedly does before every long-haul flight.

Take an enema.

Michael Wolff, whose biography of the billionaire, "The Man Who Owns the News" is out now in stores told FishbowlNY.com last week that the Fox News boss always "takes an enema before a long-haul flight."

Now if that recipe for arriving fresh at your destination doesn't make you want to make a beeline to the holiday punch bowl, I don't know what will.

Oh, and make sure that punch is spiked.

December 14, 2008

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted


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PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers can access this week's issue here.

Oh to Be in Boston

Now this is my idea of a must-see holiday event. The annual Santa Speedo Run was held Saturday in Boston.


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I think PlaneBusiness needs to sponsor one of these for airline employees. Any of you out there game? Okay, maybe airline employees and airline junkies. And geeks. And whoever else wants to participate.

Now -- who would be willing to participate?

December 11, 2008

Let it Snow!


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My timing is lousy this week.

I flew to the branch office of the Worldwide empire in Dallas yesterday -- and what happened last night and this morning? It snowed in the Swamp. Yes, I missed all the excitement.

I mean real snow. Not just a few flakes.

Damn.

The PlaneBusiness subscription manager, earnings tabulator and all-around go-to guy David grabbed this shot of Esther -- one of our wonderful and lovely pound puppies we adopted this year -- taken as she clearly was trying to determine just what all that white stuff was falling down around her in the back yard.


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Anyone Interested in an Airline ETF?


stock_trading_250x251.jpg While many readers probably wish they had simply put their money under their mattress starting about 7 years ago, and left it there -- considering what has happened in the markets the last year -- there are those of you out there who are the more adventuresome types.

And some of you may have money invested not just in stocks or bonds or mutual funds, but in ETFs. ETF stands for exchange-traded fund. All-knowing Wikipedia defines them thusly:

An ETF combines the valuation feature of a mutual fund or unit investment trust, which can be purchased or redeemed at the end of each trading day for its net asset value, with the tradability feature of a closed-end fund, which trades throughout the trading day at prices that may be substantially more or less than its net asset value."

I like to say that it's similar to a mutual fund that can be traded -- just like a stock.

Why am I getting into this Investing 101 discussion today? Because the first airline-only ETF was announced this week.

No nasty comments please. (Like, why in the would would anyone be interested?) Personally, I think the timing is excellent.

Claymore Securitiesis set to launch the first exchange-traded fund focusing on the passenger airline industry -- the Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline ETF next month.

The ETF will hold 24 global airline stocks, 70% domestic and 30% international. The top three stocks in each category will be weighted 15% in the case of domestic, and 4.5% in the case of international airlines. That puts the remaining index weights for the 18 other stocks in the ETF at 25% for domestic and 16.5% for international. All holdings must derive at least 50% of their business from passenger airline activity.

For those of you with really inquiring minds, you can read the SEC registration docs here.

December 7, 2008

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted

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PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers can access this week's issue here.

December 6, 2008

Uh-Oh. Looks Like Missouri Has Already ....Gone

I hate to call a game in the second quarter, but it looks like this one is history.

Go Mizzou

For those of you who dropped me a note today, asking about my favored team tonight in the Big 12 game -- it's Mizzou. Has to be. Remember I hang out with subscribers who have kids that played with Chase Daniel, Missouri's quarterback, at Southlake Carroll High School. I'd be run out of town if I didn't say Mizzou.

And yes, I understand that they are big underdogs.

So what?

Besides I'd love to see the chaos it would cause in the BCS Championship game ruminations if Missouri were to win. Would really shake up everything. And it would also certainly make all those Texas Longhorn fans very happy.

There you go.

Can you tell I'm not a Boomer Sooner?

Very perceptive.

Alabama versus Florida: SEC Championship on The Line Today

Sorry, I couldn't help it. I saw this and couldn't stop laughing. What makes it priceless is that as controlling and uptight as Alabama head coach Nick Saban is, you know it must have just sent him over the edge to have seen this picture. Much less the lovely photoshopped CNN breaking news presentation that some unnamed internet fan created for him.

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December 5, 2008

Mesa Air Group/Aloha/ Update: Bankruptcy Judge Says "Not So Fast"


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I'm sorry dear readers.

I should have posted this news yesterday. Wednesday, actually.

But I did not want to have to be forced to type the word "MESA" on my birthday. Or even 24 hours ahead of my birthday.

I'm sure you can understand.

But now it is Friday, so here it is.

As we wrote here the other day, Mesa announced last week that it had cut a deal with the major shareholder of Aloha Airlines that would see that shareholder, Yucaipa Cos. receive a rather sweet deal in return for the rights to the Aloha Airlines trademarks, names, logos, internet presence, corporate identity items, etc. Actually the extent of the deal was not made clear until Mesa posted an SEC filing on Monday, but, well, you can read our post on all of it here.

The only catch was that Yucaipa would need to be the highest bidder at the scheduled auction for the rights to these items, which was scheduled for Tuesday.

Tuesday, the auction took place, and Yucaipa did indeed beat out all comers, including Hawaiian Airlines, bidding $750,000 for the rights to the name. Hawaiian's all-cash bid was $575,000, which was the required overbid after Yucaipa had initiated the auction process as the so-called "stalking horse" with a bid of $525,000.

But then a funny thing happened on the way to Mesa getting the right to use the Aloha name. And the livery. And everything else.

The deal was temporarily blocked by the federal Bankruptcy Court judge who is presiding over the case.

Judge Lloyd King postponed the scheduled hearing on the licensing pact between Mesa and Yucaipa Cos. until Feb. 19 to give supporters and opponents of the deal more time to respond.

"How about all the people whose lives were devastated in this case?" asked King, noting that Mesa and go! are largely blamed for Aloha's demise. "Doesn't that count? Is it just the money?"

"I don't think anyone is sensitive who's involved in this settlement," King said. "If this isn't approved, are people from Yucaipa going to lose their health benefits and their jobs? There hasn't been enough time for people to react."

He said that the extra time would give both supporters and opponents more time to respond.

You know, that's the thing about those federal bankruptcy judges. You just never know what they are going to do. And sometimes -- this turns out to be a good thing.

I guess there's a Santa Claus after all.

All That's Left...


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Yesterday I had another one of those evil days. Yes, a birthday.

And this is all that is left of my birthday cake.

It was a great cake.

Not that very many of you are going to be driving through Slidell, Louisiana any time soon but if you do, be sure and look up a little European bakery on Robert Rd. called F.O.M.

You'll never touch anything in a Safeway again. Much less a Tom Thumb.

Owner Michael Pastroet says he came up with the name F.O.M. Bakery & Catering while sitting in church one day. Suddenly, it came to him...Fishers Of Men, F.O.M. The bakery, which in my opinion sells its exquisite products for far less than they are worth, has been in operation since 2004.

That's not that yucky blood-sugar raising confectioner's sugar icing on there. Nope. Just whipped cream. Lots of real whipped cream. Inside? Light spongy homemade cake in three thin layers, separated by bavarian cream and strawberries.

Uh-huh.

Go ahead. Drool.

It's perfectly acceptable.

I would show you a picture of the chocolate covered strawberries they threw in for gratis -- just because it was my birthday, but sorry. They're all gone. ;-)

December 4, 2008

Airbus Leaked Document Skewers Boeing 787 Program


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Score another one for Jon Ostower, better known as Flightblogger.

Jon, who in my opinion is the source for all things Boeing, published a document this afternoon that appears to be a copy of a legitimate Airbus presentation entitled, "Boeing 787 Lessons Learnt."

The 46-page document says that it was presented by Burkhard Domke, Head of Engineering Intelligence for Airbus and it has a date on it of October 2008. You can download a copy by clicking here.

The report outlines a list of problems that Boeing has had and continues to have with the 787 production process under a number of headings:


• Design Issues

• Weight Issues

• Engine Issues

• Certification Issues

• Production Issues

• Schedule Issues



Makes for some interesting reading.

December 3, 2008

American Airlines, US Airways Release Nov. Traffic Results


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Since we started on this traffic, capacity and load factor watch this week, we might as well continue it.

Today American Airlines and US Airways reported their November numbers.

At American, RPMs fell 14.5% compared to a year earlier, but this was more than the airline's reduction in capacity of 9.3%. This resulted in a drop in load factor of 4.6 points to 76.6%.

For American Eagle, things were even worse. RPMs here were down 21.5%, while capacity was down 15.9%. This resulted in a load factor drop of 4.6 points to 67.3%.

For US Airways, consolidated RPMs dropped 6.9% for November. But this pretty much matched the airline's reduction in ASMs as the airline posted a drop in load factor of only 0.8 points. Basically flat.

For mainline only, the airline actually did quite well, as it saw RPMs down 3.6%. With capacity down 5.2%, this resulted in an increase in load factor -- up 1.4 points to 81.9%.


December 2, 2008

Mesa Air Group SEC Filing Tells Us Way More Than the Airline's Press Release Did


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Last week Mesa Air Group issued a press release in which it talked about a deal the airline had cut with bankrupt Aloha Airlines' major shareholder, the Yucaipa Cos. According to the release, in return for Yucaipa dropping all claims associated with the Aloha Airlines antitrust suit that it filed against Mesa, and in anticipation of Yucaipa being the highest bidder for the various Aloha trademarks, logo, and other naming rights at today's Aloha bankruptcy auction -- Mesa said in its release that it had agreed to:

Pay Yucaipa $2 million;

Issue 2.7 million common shares of Mesa Air Group stock;

Provide inter-island travel benefits to former Aloha employees.

Note that in the release Mesa did not say it was going to issue the shares and give them to Yucaipa, a fact that a handful of you pointed out to me this last weekend. It really was stated in a very ambiguous way. But apparently this is indeed the case.

Be that as it may, as I said in this week's PlaneBusiness Banter, the fact that Mesa Air Group would think that it could simply purchase the name "Aloha Airlines" and start using it -- and that this was perceived by Mesa management as a positive marketing tactic -- given the fact that many in Hawaii still blame Mesa (rightly or wrongly) for Aloha's demise -- was nothing short of mind-boggling.

However, an alert on the company's 8-K SEC filing came sailing through in our email box late last night and it seems that there were more than a couple of details of this deal that Mesa did not talk about in its press release.

Here's the verbiage straight from the filing:

In addition, under the Settlement Agreement, Mesa and Yucaipa agreed to establish a licensing and profit sharing arrangement whereby, in the event that Yucaipa is able to acquire from Aloha in an upcoming bankruptcy court auction the rights to the names "Aloha" and "Aloha Airlines," Yucaipa will enter into a license agreement with Mesa to license such names to Mesa for ten years (the "Term") in exchange for royalty payments by Mesa and Mesa will pay to Yucaipa a set percentage of the pre-tax operating profits from Mesa's operations in the Hawaiian inter-island market. Specifically, for each year during the Term, Mesa will pay Yucaipa 1% of the passenger ticket revenue generated from all Hawaiian inter-island flight operations, subject to a minimum annual revenue payment of $600,000 (the "Revenue Payments"), and will also pay Yucaipa 30% of the pre-tax operating profits from Mesa's operations in the Hawaiian inter-island market less the Revenue Payments.

If Mesa ceases inter-island flight operations in Hawaii, Mesa has the right to terminate the licensing and profit sharing arrangement. Mesa will provide Yucaipa with a $5 million promissory note payable over five years, at LIBOR +350 basis points interest, reset quarterly, that will become payable if Mesa ceases operations in the Hawaiian inter-island market or breaches the Settlement Agreement. If, at the end of the first five years of the Term, the note has not become payable as a result of Mesa's cessation of operations or breach, the principal owing on the note will decrease automatically on a straight-line basis over the remaining five years of the Term. If Mesa ceases operations in Hawaii or breaches the Settlement Agreement during the final five years of the Term, the amount payable on the note would be the principal remaining at the time of such cessation or breach. The note will be secured by a first priority lien on certain Mesa assets with a fair market value equal to 125% of the principal amount of the note.

Yes, indeedy. It does appear that there are a lot more ifs, ands, or buts to this deal than had been publicly disclosed in the Mesa press release.

Essentially, in return for the use of the "Aloha Airlines" name, Mesa has agreed to pay Yucaipa 1% of the passenger ticket revenue generated from all Hawaiian inter-island revenue AND it will also pay Yucaipa 30% of the pre-tax operating profits from the operations. If Mesa stops flying in Hawaii, then Yucaipa gets a $5 million promissory note payable in five years at a rather hefty interest rate.

Amazing. Just simply amazing.

Wonder what Yucaipa gets if Mesa declares bankruptcy?

No Wonder My Southwest Airlines Pre-Turkey Day Flight Wasn't Full


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And we thought Continental's numbers were bad.

Yikes.

Southwest Airlines reported its November traffic numbers this morning. Sitting down?

The airline reported that RPMs declined 8.3% on flat ASM figures. That my friends, translates to a load factor of only 63.2%, down from 69.3% for the same period last year. That is a 6.1 point drop in load factor.

Anyone out there still think that demand is holding steady? Raise that hand higher, I can't see it.

Not good. Especially with Southwest making the bet earlier this year that people would "book away" from other carriers, preferring to fly with "no fees."

As usual, Southwest gave no RASM estimates for the month.

American Airlines Presentation From Monday

For those of you with inquiring minds, you can access the presentation that American Airlines made to the negotiators for the Allied Pilots Association by clicking here.

Meanwhile, as far as the APA is concerned, they told members yesterday,

"NEGOTIATING UPDATE: After a nearly seven-week break, formal negotiating sessions with AMR resumed this afternoon. According to the National Mediation Board mediator-directed agenda, AMR’s negotiators were slated to offer specific counters to APA’s responses to portions of management’s latest scheduling proposal. To our disappointment, management had no scheduling proposals or responses to discuss. In fact, they were not prepared to conduct bargaining on any area of the contract.

In a subsequent caucus with the NMB mediators, APA discussed the current status of negotiations. Bargaining was suspended and another day was lost because AMR was not prepared to negotiate, did not adhere to the agenda, and was not held accountable by the NMB. They continue to ignore the NMB’s direction and agenda, are non-responsive to APA proposals, and refuse to discuss major issues such as compensation, stagnation and furlough protections."

As one of our longtime AMR/APA watchers observed this morning, "APA’s version has nothing about walking out or the Powerpoint slide show. That said I think both sides are getting their ducks in a row for the new sheriff coming to town in January."

American Airlines and The Allied Pilots Union: Ugly, Ugly


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Trebor Banstetter over at the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reports today that things got a little heated at a meeting yesterday between the negotiators for American Airlines and pilot union representatives.

AA blasts union, pilots walk out

Officials with American Airlines gave a presentation to federal mediators Zachary Jones and Mike Tosi yesterday that criticized the pilots union for its approach to contract negotiations. The presentation accused the union of refusing to negotiate, pushing for an impasse (which would allow the union to strike), and ignoring the economic realities of the airline industry. It's strong stuff, and far more aggressive than most of the airline's public comments about the talks with pilots, which have made little progress after more than two years. Shortly after beginning the presentation, union negotiators "opted to leave the session," according to the airline.

Don't you just love the holidays? The season brings out the warmth and the joy in everyone, wouldn't you agree?

British Airways and Qantas Crank Up the Merger Machine


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It seems that we have news of a merger a minute these days -- but nothing U.S. based. Yet.

This morning, hot on the heels of the news that Ryanair was once again mounting a hostile attempt to take over the 70% of Aer Lingus it does not currently control (a move which, not surprisingly the Aer Lingus management team quickly denounced) today we have news of an attempt at a true blockbuster link-up.

British Airways and Qantas are apparently in discussions to do the dastardly deed.

According to Bloomberg,

"The airlines are discussing a combination after the Australian government said today in a policy paper that it might ax a rule barring individual foreign holdings of more than 25 percent and total foreign airline holdings of more than 35 percent. Still, there are no plans to abandon the so-called "Qantas Sale Act” that says the carrier must remain 51 percent locally owned.

'Any transaction would also comply fully with Qantas’s Sale Act and Australia’s international Air Services Agreements,' Qantas said separately.

Negotiations on a merger are "advanced," the Australian Financial Review said earlier. British Airways, Europe’s third-biggest carrier after Air France-KLM group and Deutsche Lufthansa, said it issued today’s statement in response to "media speculation."

A merger of the two airlines would create an entity with annual sales of about $23 billion.

What a coincidence.AMR, parent of American Airlines also generates about $23 million in annual revenue.

And yes, you'd have to a blind person not to see why it is that the American Airlines-British Airways anti-trust piece of the pie is so important to this oneworld concept of world domination.

According to various reports out this morning, both airlines would retain their own brands. Sounds like another Air France/KLM type of set-up that is being proposed.

December 1, 2008

Continental Airlines Comments Confirm What Thin Thanksgiving Crowds Indicated


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I love the airline stock sector. Just when you think it's safe to stay in the water....

<Insert the theme from "Jaws" here>

Last week the sector enjoyed one of the best week's it has had in, well, weeks, with the majority of the stocks we track here at PlaneBusiness posting nice double-digit gains.

Today? Not so much.

And tomorrow? Probably worse. Much worse.

After the close of trading late this afternoon Continental Airlines announced its traffic numbers for November, along with its RASM estimates.

The numbers were not good. Ugly might be a better way to describe them.

You can read the release here, but here's the Cliff's Notes version.

Consolidated load factor was down 2.8 points to 77.3%, while mainline posted a load factor down 2.6 points to 77.8%.

On a consolidated basis, traffic was down 10.5% while capacity declined only 7.3%.

But here's the nasty news. Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile is estimated to have increased only between 1% and 2% compared to November 2007. while mainline passenger RASM was up between 2% and 3%.

To put these numbers in perspective, last month the airline posted a consolidated RASM figure that was up 9.5% over October 2007, while mainline passenger RASM was up 10.4% year-over-year.

In addition, these estimates are also below recent analysts' estimates, and the airline's own recently revised guidance, which had the airline posting RASM increases of between 4% and 6%.

For those of you who don't follow the sector that closely, the RASM numbers that Continental reports are looked upon as an indicator for the rest of the industry. Sometimes the airline can be a bit above or below the rest of the pack for various reasons, but most of us airline financial types still use their "first out of the box" look at RASM as a kind of indicator as to what's on the horizon.

If this is what Continental did for the month, I'm not sure I want to see any more numbers.

Can United Airlines Be This Stupid?

From one of our most revered industry observers, a note this afternoon.

"United cannot be stupid enough to promote Saver awards Denver-Vail. Oh wait. Yes they can."

I have to say, if the airline is pushing its customers to redeem freebie miles for Denver-Vail in January -- Chicago I think you do have a problem. Or maybe more than one.

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PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted


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PlaneBusiness Banter addicts, er, subscribers, can get their weekly fix here. Enjoy.

Ryanair Makes New Bid for Aer Lingus


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Let no one say that Ryanair's CEO Michael O'Leary is not a determined person.

This morning Ryanair announced that it will pay $1.78 (€1.40) a share -- or $950 million in cash -- for the remaining 70% of Irish flag carrier Aer Lingus. This price represents a hefty 28% premium over the current stock price.

Two years ago Ryanair tried to buy the airline, but only got as far as putting together a 30% stake in the airline.

Significance of the move? When was the last time we saw a low cost carrier purchase what is considered to be a Legacy carrier?

I suspect Mr. O'Leary may be successful in his attempt this time. There are too many things working in his favor as compared to two years ago.

Have We Digested All That Food Yet?

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I don't know about you, but I'm still working on mine.

Happy Monday After Thanksgiving everyone. We here at the PlaneBusiness Worldwide Headquarters enjoyed the last few days doing what most of you probably did as well. We ate too much turkey, watched too much football, and ate too much homemade pumpkin pie.

Yes, I think we ate more than we watched.

Yes, yours truly blew it out this year. Made a pumpkin pie from scratch I'll have you know. And I have to tell you -- it was truly a feast for the senses. Almost orgasmic. But then again, I guess you have to be a real foodie to understand.

But today is the start of a new week and a new month. And it's back to work for all the elves here at the Worldwide Headquarters, including me, as we wrap up the latest issue of PlaneBusiness Banter. (Yes, I decided to give the elves a much needed holiday weekend off so they too could eat too much and watch too much football.)

PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers -- we'll be posting the latest issue later today. I'll let you know when it is ready to be perused here. As usual.

All you other folks -- why don't you subscribe? Aren't you tired of feeling left out?

Back later.