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July 31, 2007

Compelling Reading

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From another list that I hang out on -- a link to a compelling trip report on airliners.net that is well worth the read. A heavy aircraft, a hot day, and a near-miss with an Air Canada A320 make for one excellent read.

Check it out.

Airline Stocks Fall as Oil Rises -- With Two Exceptions

Midwest
With the price of oil taking off today, most airline stocks went in the opposite direction.

With two big exceptions.

On the back of the news that Midwest Airlines will begin "discussions" with AirTran, as well as other "strategic and financial parties" that have expressed interest in a deal with Midwest -- shares of Midwest were trading up almost 13% as we posted this update, to 14.18.

Ryanair

Across the pond, Ryanair also saw shares up sharply today, as ADRs of the airline were trading up almost 14%, sitting at around $41.75 last time I checked.

The reason? The airline reported earnings up 20% from last year's fiscal first quarter.

Tickers: AMEX:MEH, Nasdaq:RYAAY

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

Price of Oil Continues to Climb

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Big day for oil today as the price of a barrel of crude oil closed up $1.40 today, closing at 78.23.

Yep. More than $78 a barrel.

Tuesday Tidbits

Nwa-5
Hello everyone. Okay, it just took me more than an two hours to get my email box to a point where I could at least know how far behind I was. Heh. I have a friend who makes fun of me whenever I say I am going to try and not check email for days at a time. (He says that never happens.) But Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and most of Monday it was true, as I was caught up with the family activities here at the Worldwide Headquarters involving PlaneMom's farewell flight.

And today, I have paid the price.

Maybe I should just shut down the computer and go do something else.

Nah....

So -- first of all, there have been seven count them seven airlines, that reported earnings between the time PBB was in the editing process Thursday morning and today.

US Airways, Alaska, Frontier, Midwest, AirTran, Republic and Northwest.

Speaking of Northwest, the airline's cancellations continued to spike over the weekend. More than 200 flights were canceled Sunday alone, 128 cancelled on Monday, 62 cancelled as of 1:30 p.m. CT.

Between Friday and Sunday more than 514 flights were canceled. 

No surprise that both sides -- management at the airline and the airline's pilots --  continue finger-pointing at the other for the increased cancelation figures.

Oh, and yes, Northwest reported a profit today. Without reorganizational items, and before taxes, the company earned $273 million compared $179 million in the second quarter of last year. Not counting the reorg items, the airline had been expected to post a profit of $0.79 a share. The airline came in just under that at $0.78.

In today's earnings call, CEO Doug Steenland said "our operational performance in June and July has been unacceptable and we must restore NWA to its historical position as one of the most reliable airlines in the industry. Our immediate focus is to restore operational reliability."

Meanwhile, as I said, the airline also explained that the cause of cancellations is from a combination of bad weather on the east coast and a spike in pilot absenteeism, but officials for NWA's pilots union continue to argue that the carrier has too few pilots to fly the planes.

July 26, 2007

PlaneBusiness Banter Now Posted

Home-Typewriter Copy-1-43

PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers can access this week's issue by clicking here.

Pick a Livery, Any Livery

Had to chuckle when this was passed along to me today. The subject header was "We've Got Some Work to Do."

Deltalivery

Oil Moves Up, Dow Moves Down

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Wild day down there in the pits on Wall Street today, as more mortgage and credit bad news sent shares of the Dow Jones Blue Chip Index down more than 300 points just a few moments ago. As of this posting, the Dow is now treading down about 296 points. That represents about a 2.2% decline on the day.

Other not so good news as we look at the stocks we track here at PlaneBusiness. Not one, not ONE airline or airline-related stock that we track is posting a gain as we post this note.

Meanwhile on the oil price front, a barrel of crude oil hit $77 a barrel in trading earlier today, but is now is trading around 76.05.

PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers: this week's issue will be posted later today.

July 24, 2007

Clive To Step Down as CEO of WestJet

040317-Format-Beddoe
Oh my.

The last founder of WestJet standing has announced that come September, he'll be leaving his post as CEO. He'll become the company's executive chairman of the airline.

“I will continue to play a key role within WestJet as the company’s executive chairman by establishing and supporting the strategic direction of the company,” Beddoe said in a statement issued today.

Beddoe, who co-founded the airline in 1996, plans to hand over the job of CEO to current WestJet president Sean Durfy on Sept. 4

I wonder if this means Clive will be able to sneak in more time fly-fishing. In an interview we did with Beddoe a number of years ago in PlaneBusiness Banter, he seemed most happy when he was talking not about the airline -- but about how he loved to fly fish -- but that he didn't get nearly enough time to pursue his love.

Being an airline CEO can tend to cut down on the fly-fishing time.

Here's to more fly-fishing time for Clive as he moves more into a strategic position with the airline that he created, along with Don Bell, Mark Hill and Tim Morgan, in 1996.

Tuesday Tidbits

Earnings-5
Hi guys. Yes, the Memorial Service for PlaneMom is Saturday, so yours truly spent most of today and yesterday doing things related to it. You know - signing papers at the attorney's office, going back to the florist, trying to get the programs finished, making sure there is nothing else I have to order online so that it gets here ontime, making dinner reservations for after the service, scrounging around for additional easels to hold artwork and pictures -- you know, the usual.

Frankly, as the one who is supposed to give the main "address" or whatever on Saturday, I can guarantee you it won't be structured until late Friday night. If not Saturday morning.

Having said that, tomorrow and Thursday are now officially designated as "Memorial Free Days." Heh. I'll see how long that lasts. It had better last as I've got to write about Continental, JetBlue, and United's second quarter numbers in detail this week in PBB. Along with all of our normal bantering.

Speaking of United, as per their revised guidance in June, the airline posted good numbers today.

The company said its second-quarter profit amounted to $274 million, or $1.83 per share, compared with $119 million, or $0.93 per share, a year earlier.

Wall Street analysts had expected the company to earn $1.39 per share, according to consensus numbers.

Can't wait to listen to the latest edition of the Jake and Glenn show.

Yesterday the airline unveiled the details of its new business class seats. They've gone flat.

If anyone had any doubt as to whether or not the new Business Class seats on American were lacking -- I think United just took a big step in making that decision for them as they announced they are going to lie-flat seats for their business class configurations.

Business-class cabin improvements to United's Boeing 747s, 767s and 777s will include electrical outlets, connections for Apple iPods to seat-back video screens, and seats that turn into lie-flat beds. United will install new fixtures and tiling in lavatories and offer more movie choices throughout the planes, and put new cushions and fabric on coach seats.

But there is another side to the announced changes. The airline will also be reducing the number of first and business class seats on its 747s, 777s, and 767s. The move is designed to add more more coach tickets that are paid for at some fare, rather than having more room taken up by first and business-class travelers who aren't paying top fares -- but upgrading.

Interesting move.

Or, as Brian Nelson, analyst with Morningstar told Bloomberg, "This is a cheaper way of increasing seat capacity on a lucrative market. It's definitely cheaper than buying a new 747 outright.''

Jamie Baker, analyst with JP Morgan said that if the airline were to make the changes today, the airline would immediately pick up 2% in capacity -- as a result of the changes.

JetBlue also reported in today.

The airline reported net income for the quarter rose to $21 million, or $0.11, from $14 million, or $0.08 cents, earned in the year-ago second quarter.

While this was an improvement year-over-year, it wasn't that much of an improvement, and was below analyst's consensus for the airline. Analysts had expected the airline to post a profit of $0.12 a share.

Speaking of my memorial service duties, (which have included screening thousands of slides) here I offer you just a small taste of what my mother would make me endure on a regular basis, i.e., pose for her. Didn't matter what time of year. What the reason. What the outfit.

As you can clearly see.

Well, I guess another 40 of these might make my argument stronger, but I won't subject you to that.

Hollyposeweb

July 20, 2007

PBB Posted

Home-Typewriter Copy-36

Okay boys and girls. This week's issue of PlaneBusiness Banter, complete with in-depth coverage of the earnings calls of American, Southwest, and Delta Air Lines, is now posted. Subscribers can access this week's issue here.

PBB Posting ETA 5:30 CDT

We're working, we're working.

July 19, 2007

Prowling Around the Virgin Site

Just finished all I am capable of writing for PBB tonight and thought I'd wander over and explore the Virgin site.

I like it.

Very easy and intuitive to use when making a reservation -- and the first class seats look pretty cool. Especially at $389 RT for New York/SFO. (That's before taxes, etc.)

I may have to check out one of their trans-cons when my usual August hiatus rolls around.

Oil Continues Upward Trek: $75.92

Oil Barrels3-1
For those with enquiring minds -- or SUVs -- crude oil futures closed at $75.92 today.

Wheeeeeeeeee.

Virgin Site Returns

Ta-da!

Go grab those tickets now. The Virgin America site is back up and ready for business.

PlaneBusiness Banter Posting Tomorrow

Home-Typewriter Copy-1-42Okay folks. Between calls from well-wishers, friends I haven't seen in years, the florist, my brother, my father, and news organizations seeking more information about PlaneMom (she was somewhat of an arts and cultural icon in these parts), I'm already behind our usual Thursday schedule for PlaneBusiness Banter today. (The memorial service for PlaneMom is next Saturday, July 28, so yours truly is getting into the "crunch time" on all of this. Ahem.)

So -- PBB subscribers -- PBB will be posted on Friday this week.

More later.

HTML Fixed

Whew.

Damn HTML tags....

Working to fix that previous post. That's what happens when you copy and paste from a press release....grumble, grumble.

Herb to Retire Next Year

Idbb 02 Img0146

Hot off the presses.

"The Board of Directors of Southwest Airlines today announced details of its new employment contracts with Executive Chairman Herb Kelleher, President and Corporate Secretary Colleen Barrett, and Vice Chairman and CEO Gary Kelly.

    -- Herb Kelleher, 76, will continue as Executive Chairman of the Board for
      one year and will step down from that position at the Company's 2008
      Annual Meeting of Shareholders.  Kelleher is a Founder of Southwest
      Airlines and has served as Executive Chairman since 1978.  From 1981
      through June 2001, Kelleher also served as President and CEO of
      Southwest Airlines.
 
-- Colleen Barrett, 62, will continue as President for one year and will
      step down from that position on July 15, 2008.  Barrett has served as
      Secretary of the Corporation since 1978; Vice President Administration
      from 1986 to 1990; Executive Vice President Customers from 1990 to
      2001; and President since 2001.

-- Gary Kelly, 52, will remain as CEO with a contract expiration date of
      February 1, 2011.  Kelly began his career at Southwest Airlines as
      Controller in 1986; was named Vice President Finance and CFO in 1989;
      Executive Vice President and CFO in 2001; and CEO and Vice Chairman in
      July 2004.
 
After relinquishing their current management and Board positions in 2008,
Kelleher and Barrett will remain for five years as Employees of the airline
they nurtured from the very beginning, working fulltime at the Company's
Dallas headquarters.

    "After 41 years as an Officer and Director of Southwest Airlines, I will
be resigning from those positions as of our Shareholders' meeting in May
2008," Kelleher said.  "Why?  Because our organizational transition that began
in 2001 will then be complete and because I have unalloyed respect for, and
confidence in, our CEO Gary Kelly and his superb cadre of Southwest Officers.
Southwest's future is bright -- and so are they!

    "The People of Southwest have always been my pride, my joy, and my love.
Their indomitable dedication and esprit de corps have taken Southwest from a
three-airplane dream to a 500-airplane reality.  I am grateful that I will
continue to have the opportunity to work with our People and to bask in their
good humor and excellence for many years to come," he said.

    Barrett said, "Though I will be resigning as Corporate Secretary and a
Board Member as of our May 2008 Annual Shareholders' meeting and from my
management position (i.e., President) as of July 15, 2008, I am delighted that
I will still be able to practice/follow my Customer Service passion and
continue the work that I absolutely LUV:  serving the Internal and External
Customers of Southwest Airlines.  Southwest is characterized by the high
spirits of its Employees and its industry leading Customer Satisfaction
record.  The 'business of business' is ultimately about People, and I am very
proud of the fact that Southwest's humanistic focus has served as a luminous
beacon in this respect.

Colleen Barrett

    "I have been very blessed over the last 40 years of my career -- blessed to work with -- and for-the most caring, most altruistic, and most giving People that anyone has ever been fortunate enough to meet.  Those years have been a true 'Labor of LUV.'  My heart tells me it is time to allow the next generation of SWA Leaders their day to lead.  I have always thought that one of the best traits of a Leader is to know when to follow.  And, I am looking forward to following the example set by this new Leadership generation and to continuing 'to live the Southwest Way' for several more years," she said.

    Kelly said both Kelleher and Barrett have helped make Southwest Airlines
one of the most studied corporate success stories in the history of American
business.

    "I, along with all of our 33,000 Southwest Employees, will be forever
grateful for Herb's visionary Leadership and gritty entrepreneurship," Kelly
said. "Corporate America knows that Colleen is the force behind our cherished
family culture and enviable Customer Service record."

    "I know every Employee joins me in promising Herb our continued dedication
to the cause he loves -- giving Americans the Freedom to Fly and providing job
security and a great place to work for our Employees," he said.  "I am
grateful to both of them for their friendship, mentorship, and commitment to
the future success of Southwest Airlines.  We are all fortunate to continue to
have them as an important part of our Southwest Family."

Ticker: (NYSE:LUV)

Alright, All You Other Airline Employees Fess Up

Virginout

You guys deliberately trying to overload Virgin's servers or what? ;-)

This really is a black eye for the fledging airline -- which management has faithfully touted as having the "best website" in the industry.

Mad Scramble for Virgin Tickets Swamps Airline Website

Virginamerica281202-1
Tickets for Virgin America's first flights went on sale today on the airline's website. But good luck getting on the site.

Or, if you are lucky enough to get into the site, good luck with completing the buying process. We're hearing that if you pick a flight and get to the seat selection stage, then the site crashes.

Seems the airline's website is a bit overloaded this morning.

Also, as one observer on one of our airline geek lists noted, there is an interesting notice on the airline's "News" page.

"Notice about booking tickets on Virgin America
Virgin America does not currently have authority from the Department of Transportation to operate the services for which your ticket is being issued. You may, upon request, cancel your ticket and obtain a full refund at any time before we start operations. If we have not started operations by the date of your ticketed travel, we will make reasonable efforts to arrange substitute air transportation for you, at a cost of up to 200% of your Virgin America ticket. If we cannot arrange substitute transportation for you, we will refund to you 200% of the price paid for your Virgin America ticket."

What is this all about? Minimal funding requirements of the DOT. Obviously the airline has not finished the task of getting their initial funding fully compliant with DOT regs.

Given the estimated cash burn of the airline -- while it sat grounded waiting for official DOT approval but continued to take delivery of aircraft -- I would say that those behind the initial funding for the airline will want to see an IPO attempt sooner than later.

Initial schedule, as posted on the website, is as follows:

SFO-LAX starts August 8
SFO-JFK starts August 8
LAX-JFK starts August 29
SFO-IAD starts September 26
SFO-LAS starts October 10
LAX-IAD starts October 24

Just saw some pictures from the interior of the new planes yesterday. No question. They look sleek, sexy, and pretty high tech.

July 18, 2007

Crude Closes Above $75/barrel

Oil Barrels3
Crude closed up more than a buck today, ending the day at 75.05/barrel after the DOE reported a drop in the crude oil inventory numbers for the week ending July 13.

Oh, and gasoline and distillate supplies were down too.

Jet fuel, that hot commodity that this industry is most concerned with is, of course, a distillate.

JFK a Mess; New York Weather Stinks

The notes began this morning in one of the online airline geek lists I monitor. Then I got a couple of notes from subscribers. Now, a couple more on the geek list.

Jfktowersepia

It appears that weather stinks in New York today.

And the traffic at JFK is not much better.

Airplanes have apparently been sitting for hours waiting to take off, while only a few moments ago, the JFK tower finally opened up  secondary runway for departures  -- 31L.

Average departure delays now being reported: 3.5 hours. Average arrival delay: 4 hours, 10 minutes.

JFK Tower controllers are now saying the back up should be cleared out in 2-3 hours.

Uh-huh.

Interesting, LGA is showing very minor arrival delays and no departure delays, while Newark is reporting no departure delays and an average arrival delay of one hour.

Three Airline Biggies Report Second Quarter Numbers

Earnings-4
Big day in airlineland today. American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines all reported second quarter earnings.

For PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers, we'll be taking a longer look at the results and the respective airline's earnings calls in this week's issue.

But in the meantime, here is a short and sweet take on the results posted today.

Let's start first with Southwest Airlines. Today the airline reported net income of $278 million or $0.36 a share. This compares not-so-favorably to last year when the airline reported net income of $333 million or $0.40 a share. Yes, net income was down 17%. The problem here? Slowing demand and rising fuel costs.

The sluggish demand could be seen clearly in the airline's load factor numbers. The airline added 9.2% more available seat miles for the quarter, but revenue passenger miles increased by only 6.6%, resulting in a 1.85 load factor point drop to 76.1%.

Yield was down 1.7% while RASM declined 4.1%.

See why certain folks, including me, have been questioning Southwest's continued push to add more capacity since last fall? (Although I still think we were first.)

In the case of American, the airline posted net income of $317 million or $1.08 per diluted share.  This was slightly less than the analyst consensus of $1.19.

In the airline's press release, it said that "weather disruptions" cost it about $0.12 per share.  The results represented AMR's fifth consecutive profitable quarter. A year ago, AMR reported diluted EPS of $1.14, however, that was on 12% fewer shares outstanding.

While there's no question the airline has been beset with weather issues, particularly in and around DFW this spring -  the issue here, I think, is whether or not the weather issues have been the only source of operational problems.  American is not the only airline to have faced "weather-related" issues in the second quarter. Yet they seem to be blaming a much larger hit to their results as a side-effect of such problems. At least in terms of the three airlines that reported results today.

Finally, Delta Air Lines reported earnings today as well. As we said last week in PBB, Delta revenue management guru Gail Grimmett has had good reason to do her secret little RASM dance with her tambourine of late. These results give us hard numbers as to why this is the case.

The airline reported the best numbers of the three airlines that reported in today. The strength here? Revenues. The airline reported net income of $1.77 billion, or $4.49 a share, compared to a loss of $2.21 billion in the same period a year earlier. Excluding reorganization and related one-time items, Delta had a profit of $274 million, or $0.70 cents a share, in the second quarter. This easily beat analysts' consensus, which had forecast a profit of $0.59 a share.

Okay guys. Off to listen to calls.

Ticker: (NYSE:LCC), (NYSE:AMR), (NYSE:DAL)

July 17, 2007

Mad Scramble For China

Chinamap
Let's get the tally of those airlines aspiring to fly to China updated. The scorecard is getting pretty full.

First -- American. As we had reported earlier in PBB, American applied Monday to fly from O'Hare to Beijing. (Remember, the airline can fly this route without having to obtain a new agreement with the Allied Pilots Association -- unlike a nonstop from Dallas Ft.Worth to Beijing).

Continental Airlines also filed their formal application Monday. CAL wants to fly between Newark and Shanghai.

United has filed to fly between San Francisco and Guangzhou starting in 2008, and between Los Angeles and Shanghai in 2009.

US Airways, meanwhile, wants to fly between Philadelphia and Beijing.

But wait -- there's more.

Delta Air Lines wants to fly between Atlanta to Beijing and Shanghai, while Northwest wants to fly between Detroit and Beijing and Shanghai.

Finally, there's MAXjet. Yep, MAXjet. The privately-held all-business class airline that currently flies trans-atlantic flights, has filed to fly between Seattle and Beijing.

The DOT is now accepting carrier applications for six flights that will be launched in the next two years-one apiece this year and next, and four in 2009.

Southwest Will Offer Buyout to Employees

Southwestairlines-4
In a move that would tend to support the idea that Southwest Airlines sees growth slowing and costs continuing to escalate, the airline is making a buyout offer to about 8700 employees. That number represents about 25% of the airline's total workforce.

The workers have until Aug. 10 to accept the offers, which began showing up in their mailboxes Monday, said Brandy King, a Southwest spokeswoman today. She said the company didn't have a target number of job or cost reductions it hoped to achieve.

Southwest said it is offering $25,000 in cash plus health and dental benefits to 8,700 flight attendants, baggage handlers, customer service agents and supervisors, reservations sales agents and their bosses, and freight agents who handle cargo shipments and other employees.

The offer wasn't extended to pilots and mechanics.

While this is not the first time the airline has offered a buy-out option to employees, it is certainly the largest effort on the part of the airline -- and points to how serious the airline takes the issue of mounting costs.

I have mixed feelings on this one. Clearly some of the airline's most experienced workers are the ones being targeted with this effort -- as it is clearly aimed at those employees at the top of the pay scales. And that makes me kind of sad, frankly. Don't you want your most experienced employees on the front line and working with employees?

But, if the process has  been targeted well -- it might not  be such a bad idea.

Remember -- Southwest has never laid any employees off from their position.

And over the last several years, the question of the company continuing to carry perhaps too much "internal padding" has cropped up from time to time.

As they say, the devil is in the details. Meanwhile, the news does bring a mixed reaction.

Ticker: (NYSE:LUV)

My New Vocation

Imafuneral
Note, I said vocation, not vacation.

In case you have been wondering where I have been the last couple of days -- have no fear. I'm alive and well.

And working on my new job title -- funeral memorial service planner.

Honestly -- I don't see how families do this without some outside help. The flowers, the set-up of the room, the amassing of photos -- or in my case, the amassing of slides, the scanning and the printing of the prints. The phone calls asking friends of my mother to speak, the music choices, and that age old question -- what are we going to have for people to nibble on?

Then there is the issue of my mother's artwork. Both paintings and photographs. How many can I find? (My mother, bless her heart, never catalogued her artwork. I have no idea who has what, when they purchased it, or which picture it was. )

Meanwhile the two local art associations are joining forces to offer their support -- which is most appreciated. Especially considering that the funeral home here seems to be a little, er, lacking in their support supplies for memorial services, i.e., large boards to hold photos of your loved one, and other such niceties that have now become more the rule than the exception for memorial services.

And when I asked them today to confirm that yes, I could put together a music list on my iPod and plug it into their music system, I was told no. If we used the music system, the music would play throughout the building, not just the area we will be using.

So what good is it? And why was my father and I told that the system would be available to us?

Oh, but I can bring a portable music system if I want to.

Can you tell I'm venting?

Oh, and if you are thinking what I'm thinking, i.e., go to another funeral home -- I can't. The other one in Slidell, LA had 8 feet of water in it during Hurricane Katrina and was never rebuilt.

July 12, 2007

PBB Now Posted

Home-Typewriter Copy-35
Okay guys. For those of you who are PlaneBusiness Banter subscribers, you can now access this week's issue of PBB here.

PBB Posting Tonight

Home-Typewriter Copy-34
Hi everyone. This week's issue of PlaneBusiness Banter should be posted no later than 9:30 CDT. I'll be back when we're up and ready for public consumption.

July 11, 2007

Ah, Maybe More Facts Would be Nice

1-2-Dad-Reading-Newspaper
Okay, I'm on a rant this morning. Just read a Reuters piece by Kyle Peterson that was posted on USAToday.com.

In this piece entitled, "Pilot frustration mounts over US Airways merger" Peterson claims, "While the intra-union seniority debate rages, ALPA also is trying to reach agreement with US Airways on a contract that covers both pilot groups."

That's not exactly the case.

He then goes on to infer that US Airways might not be in a hurry to negotiate a contract -- given the fact that a new contract would cost the airline more money.

Trust me. Management at US Airways knows that a single contract situation will save the company money. But, as CEO Doug Parker has said over and over, the company is not going to pay more than what is equivalent to a "cost neutral" contract -- compared to the existing US Airways (West) contract.

Oh, and yes -- that type of contract would also pay US Airways' (East)  pilots more money -- because management at US Airways has already said it will take the existing US Airways (West) contract (which is more lucrative) and apply it to the pilots at US Airways (East).

But the major point here is this. And this is what Mr. Peterson's article did not say. NO contract is going to be successfully negotiated as long as the US Airways (East) pilots are fighting the ALPA arbitration seniority award. Period.

Interesting also that Peterson did not talk to the US Airways (West) MEC Chairman for his piece -- he only talked to Jack Stephan, who is head of the US Airways (East) group. Needless to say, there is a big difference in opinion between Mr. Stephan and his cohorts on the other side.

I don't think Peterson makes this distinction clearly enough in his article. Rather, he implies that 1) the pilots are fighting over seniority. And 2) the airline is in no hurry to come to terms on a new contract. Conclusion: "Pilot Frustration Mounts Over US Airways Merger."

No, the US Airways (East) pilots are fighting over seniority in what is basically an intra-ALPA cat fight. The US Airways (West) pilots aren't stalling the process at all.

And two, management at US Airways is fully aware that a single contract is to the benefit of the airline. But that doesn't mean they are going to roll over and give away the store in negotiations either.

Ticker: (NYSE:LCC)

July 10, 2007

Oil Keeps Going Up and Up and ....Up; Dollar Keeps Dropping Lower and Lower (Along with Airline Stocks)

Oil Barrels-4
Last time I checked the price of a barrel of crude oil -- it was not a pretty sight.

$72.90, up almost a buck over yesterday's close. Futures traded as high as 73.10 today.

Not a good day for the dollar either, with the euro hitting a new high of 1.37.

The reason for the rising price of oil is a report that came out Monday from the International Energy Agency. The agency forecast that  world oil demand is now expected to rise faster than previously expected over the next five years while production declines.

With oil prices rising on this cheery news, it's not surprising that today has not been a good day for airline stocks. As of this posting, shares of US Airways are down almost 6% on the day, while shares of Continental are now down almost 4%, ditto for shares of AMR.

The reason for the sinking dollar is increasing concerns over an issue we've been beating the drum over for more than four years in our weekly Market Review in PBB -- yes, that mortgage fantasy bubble that has now broken in a big way. Debt rating agency Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that it might downgrade $12 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS. S&P also said it is changing the way it evaluates subprime RMBS, partly because of unprecedented levels of misrepresentation and fraud, combined with potentially shoddy loan data.

Nice.

Obviously, given this news, foreign investors have decided that maybe euros are the place to park money now -- not the dollar.

Flying Lawn Chair Takes to the Skies

Art.Lawn.Chair.Ap
In the "Best headline of the Day" award category today, we have "Man flies 193 miles in Lawn Chair" -- compliments of the Associated Press.

"Last weekend, Kent Couch settled down in his lawn chair with some snacks -- and a parachute. Attached to his lawn chair were 105 large helium balloons.

Destination: Idaho.

With instruments to measure his altitude and speed, a global positioning system device in his pocket, and about four plastic bags holding five gallons of water each to act as ballast -- he could turn a spigot, release water and rise -- Couch headed into the Oregon sky.

Nearly nine hours later, the 47-year-old gas station owner came back to earth in a farmer's field near Union, short of Idaho but about 193 miles from home.

"When you're a little kid and you're holding a helium balloon, it has to cross your mind," Couch told the Bend Bulletin.

"When you're laying in the grass on a summer day, and you see the clouds, you wish you could jump on them," he said. "This is as close as you can come to jumping on them. It's just like that."

Couch is the latest American to emulate Larry Walters -- who in 1982 rose three miles above Los Angeles in a lawn chair lifted by balloons. Walters had surprised an airline pilot, who radioed the control tower that he had just passed a guy in a lawn chair. Walters paid a $1,500 penalty for violating air traffic rules.

It was Couch's second flight."

You can read the rest of the story here.

July 9, 2007

Southwest Initiates "Notable" Fare Increase

Lg
This weekend  Southwest Airlines  raised the majority of its fares by $1 to $10, one-way.

As most of you are aware -- whenever Southwest raises its fares -- it's usually a bigger deal than the usual legacy airline increases. Why? First, because almost immediately the legacy carriers jump up and down in a frenzy, matching any Southwest increase as soon as possible.

Secondly, as JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker points out in a note this morning, most of the airlines' domestic revenue comes from markets where legacy carriers compete with the discount airlines. Not those Ithaca to Pittsburgh runs. As a result, when Southwest ups its fares -- everyone notices.

Or, as Baker said, "This One Matters – We have grown increasingly wary as to benefits of continued Legacy-only fare efforts given, well, they don't really seem to be helping all that much (i.e. dozens of fare increases have translated into LOWER domestic prices for consumers, in large part due to perpetual sales). Fare efforts that lack Discounter participation simply don’t pack much RASM punch, as the industry generates significantly more revenue in Discounter markets than, say, between White Plains and Oxnard. However, when Southwest chooses to push fares higher, we do sit up and take notice and expect the market to do the same."

This will be Southwest's fourth major fare increase for the year. The airline pushed through five major fare increases in 2006.

The fact the airline is raising fares bodes well for future revenues. The news also comes after both Continental and US Airways voiced positive RASM news about June -- in their traffic reports last week.

Boeing Official 787 "Coming Out Party"

Did anyone watch the official Boeing coming out party Sunday for the 787? I know a number of readers wrote me notes who had trouble with the internet feed from the Boeing site. I also had a couple of you wonder if ex-NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw, who was moderating the event, might have had a bit too much champagne before he got onstage.

I didn't watch the entire thing, but one thing I did note -- the plane is a heckuva a lot better looking with its nose on. Those earlier shots that were taken a couple of weeks ago that were posted online and that we posted in PBB did not have the nose attached. Without the nose the airplane looked rather stubby -- but with sexy wings. The plane looks a lot less stubby fully assembled -- now  it has both sexy wings and a sexy nose.

Meanwhile, in the gossip category -- how come former CEO Phil Condit was at the ceremony and Alan Mulally was not? James Wallace, the reporter with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer who does such a great job covering the aerospace industry, said in an article today that Mulally was not invited.

For those of you who missed the official roll-out yesterday, (and I guess that includes Alan) here you go.

Ticker: (NYSE:BA)

450Boeing 787Rollout2829

Monday Musings: Thanks To Everyone

Thank-You-Planecrop
Before we talk about airplanes and airlines this week -- a very heartfelt thank you to all of you who have sent me notes concerning the loss of my mother. They were most appreciated. I've even heard from folks I haven't heard from in years -- and that is always a good thing. Makes one think about why it is we lose touch with so many folks during the course of our lifetime.

Mom's obituary can be found at legacy.com, for those of you who are interested. Just plug in "Hegeman" and she'll be there.

Again, thanks so much for the words of support.

And -- thanks especially to one friend who sent me an email entitled "Congratulations!" As he put it, my mother is finally out of her pain and suffering, and my dad and I can now go back to living more of a normal life. I understood his sentiments perfectly. Yes, everyone is "in a better place."

Amongst the second quarter earnings reports that will start flooding the office next week -- I will also be working on a memorial service for July 28 that, hopefully, will not be a depressing event. Rather -- it will be a celebration of "crazy Elaine" as my mother was known in some quarters. 

Thanks again everyone.

Now it's time to get back to airplanes.

July 4, 2007

No PlaneBusiness Banter This Week

I will be sending an email to all subscribers later today, but an advance heads-up for you folks who have nothing better to do on a July 4th than read blogs.

There will be no PlaneBusiness Banter published this week, due to my mother's decision to depart this life on this rainy holiday morning.

I'll probably be pretty scarce in here as well for the next few days.

Behave yourself in the meantime.

Elaine L. Hegeman 1922-2007

This morning my mother, aka PlaneMom, passed away. She was 84 years old, and she and my father marked their 65th wedding anniversary just two weeks ago, on June 20.

As many of you are aware, this has been a very long downhill struggle. But my mother never gave up the fight. I don't know if I could have or would have done the same.

While it is hard to let her go, I am relieved that she is now in a much better place than she was.

Photofetch.Ashx
The image here is what we are going to use on the announcements concerning her memorial service. It is a hand colored rendition of a photograph I took of her last year. This was one of the last times that she was able to come home. It was Easter. And I gave her the hat and told her I wanted to take her picture. The thought of looking "festive" and having her picture taken seemed to brighten up her day.

Mom was an artist. A pretty good one. And when her arthritis got so bad she could no longer hold a paint brush, she became a photographer.

And she was a pretty good photographer too.

No surprise then that she was always the one pushing me to do creative things. When I was five years old, she would let me make "creations" in the kitchen. Flour, food coloring, bread, jello, whatever would go into these concoctions, which she would dutifully let remain in the refrigerator for at least a week -- before she threw them out. This, of course, after she had cleaned up the mess in the kitchen I would invariably create as part of my "cooking" process.

She loved hot air ballooning (compliments of my brother), Sedona, and the Jersey shore, where she grew up, and where I was born.

And she always had a flair for the dramatic. Hence, I'm not surprised she died this morning, July 4th.

I'll miss you Mom.

July 3, 2007

Friendly, But Very Unpleasant

Sorry, that tagline at the bottom of the previous image is not coming through too clearly. But that is what it says!

Speaking of Labor Issues....and Continental...

There was another bit of news that came out yesterday from Continental that is no doubt also helping push shares of that airline higher.

Talks between the pilots union and management at Continental Airlines regarding a new pilot contract began yesterday. The pilots union had requested that talks begin early. Their current contract expires the end of 2008. The two sides announced yesterday that a schedule had been set up and okayed by both sides for negotiations going forward.

Friendly

Just the kind of stuff Wall Street loves to hear.

Ticker: (NYSE: CAL)

DOT Numbers for May Unimpressive

Culture Shock
Just looking over the DOT operational performance numbers for May, and, well, there's not much in there to like.

We'll have our usual breakdown of the numbers in this week's PlaneBusiness Banter, but I'd say my first impression is this one. It was one really bad month for U.S. Airways.

Ticker: (NYSE:LCC)

Frontier Announces First Lynx Routes

Frontier Airlines announced its first three Lynx routes today. The Lynx operation will begin this December -- as Frontier attempts to improve its fortunes by adding regional service to its mainline operation.

The first three cities to get the new service are Wichita, Sioux City, and Rapid City, South Dakota. Yes, Sioux City. Otherwise known by its airline code, "SUX."

The new service will be flown with those very nifty Bombardier Q-400s.

Ph Cabin3

Ticker: (Nasdaq:FRNT)

Continental Reports Better Than Expected RASM Numbers for June; Stock Soars

Cal
Continental reported Monday that  its June RASM figures came in much higher than analysts had expected.

Jamie Baker, analyst with JP Morgan, wrote this morning, "Continental reported June consolidated RASM of approximately 2%, largely driven by an approximate 4% increase at the mainline. Additionally, the company amended its May mainline RASM to +1.1%, versus initial 0 to +1% guidance. These results handily exceeded our flat consolidated and 1.5% mainline June estimates, as well as those of our competitors (we believe). CAL's mainline result bodes well for the industry, in our view, and suggests a stronger-than-expected start to the all-important summer travel system."

The news has sent shares of Continental soaring. As of this posting, shares are up more than 10% on the day, currently trading at around 37.54 on very heavy volume.

Ticker: (NYSE:CAL)

Fourth of July Lull and Life in General

Lu0802~Fourth-Of-July-Posters
No, we are not on vacation -- but given the lack of activity that my email bag reflects, maybe we might as well be. It seems everyone else is.

Probably just as well this is a somewhat slow week news wise, (at least in the airline sector) as things with PlaneMom continue to, well, get worse and worse. My dad and I are now rotating shifts at the nursing home and Mom is pretty much unable to communicate, except through physical touch. She can acknowledge and respond if I am holding her hand, or massaging her shoulders and her fingers, but that is about it.

I just keep hoping that her situation will end sooner than later. For her sake. For those of you who have been in this situation, I'm sure you understand.

Yesterday was spent working on the cards we are going to send to folks for her memorial service.

I know, nothing to do with airplanes. But a lot to do with life and what we all face to some extent when not ruminating over the new 787 photos, or which CEO has screwed over his employees more than anyone else, or which airline has the worst labor relations.